EnerCom, Inc. compiled first quarter earnings per share, revenue, EBITDA and cash flow per share analyst consensus estimates on 200 E&P and OilService companies in our database.
The median OilServices company earnings estimate for the quarter ending March 31, 2015, is $0.11 per share compared to actual earnings per share of $0.02 and $0.29 for Q4’14 and Q3’14, respectively. In Q1’14, the median OilServices company earnings were $0.25. The median E&P company earnings estimate for the quarter ending March 31, 2015, is ($0.03) per share compared to actual earnings per share of $0.07 and $0.39 for Q4’14 and Q3’14, respectively. In Q1’14, the average E&P company earnings was $0.14 per share.
Crude Oil. U.S. oil consumption in January 2015 was 19.2 MMBOPD, down 1.3% compared to the prior month and 1.7% higher than the same month last year. U.S. crude oil production was 9.2 MMBOPD, down 1.4% compared to the prior month and 14.8% higher than the same month last year. The average near-term futures price for WTI in March 2015 was $47.85 per barrel, up 1.1% from the prior month and 52.4% lower than the same month last year. The five-year strip at March 31, 2015 was $60.34 per barrel.
The average price of gasoline (all grades, all formulations) in March 2015 was $2.55 per gallon, 10.6% higher than the previous month but 29.4% lower than the same month last year. In March 2015, the average near-term futures price for Brent was $56.94 per barrel, down 3.1% from the prior month and 19.0% higher than the WTI near-month futures price.
The median analyst estimate at the beginning of March for 2015 NYMEX oil was $54.40 per barrel with a high of $65.90 per barrel and a low of $46.00 per barrel.
Natural Gas. In January 2015, total natural gas consumption was 100.1 Bcf/d, up 13.6% from the prior month but 3.0% lower than the same month last year. Dry gas production in January 2015 was 73.8 Bcf/d, down -1.1% from December 2014, and up 9.0% over the same month last year.
At 1.5 Tcf (week ending 4/3/15), natural gas storage was 10.5% below the five-year historical average, and 40.4% below the five-year high.
For the month of January 2015 (the most recent data point), the EIA reported that U.S. LNG imports averaged 0.37 Bcf/d.
The average near-term futures price for Henry Hub in March 2015 decreased to $2.75 per MMBtu or 0.4% lower than the prior month and 38.7% lower than the same month last year. The five-year strip at March 31, 2015 was $3.31 per MMBtu. The median analyst estimate at the beginning of March for 2015 NYMEX gas was $3.00 per MMBtu with a high of $3.90 per MMBtu and a low of $2.70 per MMBtu.
Rig Count — Natural Gas Rig Count Declines
The U.S. land rig count sourced from RigData on March 27, 2015, stood at 1,064 rigs, a decrease of 1,030 rigs from Q3’14, of which 77% were operating horizontally.
On March 27, 2015, there were 795 horizontal rigs in the U.S., a decrease of 44% from 1,411 in Q4’2014. The number of horizontal rigs targeting natural gas exclusively dropped from December 31, 2011 by 245 rigs to 151 for a decline of 62%. The number of horizontal rigs targeting oil exclusively decreased from December 31, 2011 by 42 rig to 156 for a decrease of 21%.
By play and as compared to Q4’14, rig count changes on March 27, 2015 include Haynesville (-8 rigs), Fayetteville Shale (-5 rigs), Woodford Shale (-1 rig), Appalachian Basin (-47 rigs), Williston Basin (-87 rigs), Eagle Ford Shale (-82 rigs), DJ Niobrara (-25 rigs) and Permian Basin (-236 rigs).
Equity Markets. In March 2015, the S&P 500, XNG, XOI and OSX changed by -1.7%, -1.1%, -3.3% and -4.7% month-to-month, respectively. The S&P 500 had the largest year-over-year increase gaining 10.4% (Slide 24).
From EnerCom’s E&P Database: For April 3, 2015 year-to-date large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap and micro-cap E&P stocks lost -0.8%, gained 7.6%, 1.8% and lost -22.3%, respectively. Year-to-date, oil-weighted and gas-weighted companies lost -9.6% and -0.7%, respectively.
By region as of April 3, 2015 year-to-date, Bakken, Midcontinent and Diversified stocks gained 10.7%, 3.0%, lost -2.4%, respectively, Gulf of Mexico stocks were down -13.2%.
From EnerCom’s Oil Service’s Database: As of April 3, 2015 year-to-date, Oil Service’s large-cap and mid-cap stocks lost -4.9%, -5.6%, respectively, while small-cap and micro-cap stocks lost-9.1%, -21.8%, respectively.
Expected Themes for Conference Calls
Below are some themes and thoughts we expect to take prominence on this quarter’s conference calls.
- 2015 commodity price outlook
- Hedge position and cost control
- Balance sheet strength and near-term debt maturities
- Borrowing base redeterminations and bank price decks
- Midstream contracts and take-away capacity
- 2015 CapEx and activity levels – exploration vs. development
- Oilfield service costs and outlook
- Crude oil and natural gas differentials (Wattenberg, Bakken, etc.)
- Crude delivery and refining systems (rail systems, etc.)
- Potential for increasing M&A activity in E&P
- Year-end reserves vs. current reserves at $53 per bbl oil
- Storage and refining capacities
- Wells drilled awaiting delayed completions
- Global economic outlook
- 2015 CapEx and activity levels
- Potential for increasing M&A
- Balance sheet strength and near-term debt maturities
- Government permitting for LNG ports
- Growing pressure for US to export
- Shrinking International margins vs. North American margins
- Rig Count – Effects of drilling efficiencies
- Trends and outlook on dayrates and backlog (onshore and offshore drillers)
- Oilfield service equipment utilization rates
- Backlog of completions
- Frac sand and proppant prices
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