(All financial figures are approximate and in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted)
Crescent Point expects to spend between $950 million and $1.3 billion to target an annual average production range of 165,000 boe/d to 172,000 boe/d in 2016. This represents an average production increase of approximately one to five percent compared to 2015 guidance and a decrease in planned capital expenditures of approximately 16 to 39 percent versus 2015 estimates.
“With oil prices near multi-year lows, our 2016 plans are conservative and disciplined,” said Scott Saxberg, president and CEO of Crescent Point. “We are reducing our capital expenditures significantly from 2015 and expect to live within cash flow to protect our balance sheet. We are starting the year strong and are well positioned to achieve our 2016 targets. We have a healthy balance sheet, a solid December 2015 exit production rate in excess of 175,000 boe/d and approximately 34 percent of our 2016 crude oil production hedged at an average price of CDN$83 per bbl.”
Crescent Point is flexible in how it manages its business and will protect its balance sheet. First quarter spending is consistent in all capital scenarios with spending flexibility planned for after spring break-up. The Company is able to add or reduce capital toward the end of the second quarter, depending on the price environment at that time.
Crescent Point has a high rate-of-return, low-risk drilling inventory that provides additional flexibility when allocating capital. The Company’s 2016 plans currently include at least $150 million of long-term growth capital related to strategic projects such as waterflood initiatives, new completions technologies and step-out drilling. Such long-term growth expenditures could be re-allocated to higher rate of return drilling in order to optimize short-term capital efficiencies, which could add approximately 3,000 boe/d to the Company’s annual average production guidance, depending on timing. Crescent Point could also shift an estimated $130 million of 2017 and 2018 hedging gains into 2016 in a US$40/bbl WTI oil price environment.
Crescent Point was successful in decreasing average drilling and development capital costs by more than 30 percent over the course of 2015. If low oil prices persist, the Company expects an additional five to 10 percent reduction in its capital costs beyond those reductions achieved during 2015.
Based on drilling and development capital, which represents approximately 84 percent of the capital budget, the Company estimates it will add production in 2016 at a capital efficiency of approximately $21,000 per flowing boe, or approximately $19,000 per flowing boe excluding long-term growth capital. The Company’s 2016 production guidance includes approximately 1,700 boe/d of shut-in production, on an annualized basis, which assumes normal spring break-up conditions. In addition, the Company also plans to shut-in approximately 1,600 boe/d of production by the end of the year as part of its strategic waterflood programs. Crescent Point’s waterflood program is expected to lower decline rates and improve the Company’s long-term sustainability. The Company’s 2016 base corporate decline rate is budgeted to be approximately 28 percent.
“Over the past several years, we have continually increased our focus on waterflood projects, implementation of new technology and cost saving initiatives,” said Saxberg. “These long-term initiatives have improved our capital efficiencies and substantially lowered our corporate decline rate from 35 percent to 28 percent. We will potentially spend less than we did in 2011 when we were a much smaller company and averaged production of 74,000 boe/d.”
2016 CAPITAL SPENDING DETAILS
For 2016, Crescent Point expects to spend between $950 million and $1.3 billion, which is approximately a 16 to 39 percent reduction from 2015 estimates. Approximately 84 percent of this capital has been allocated to drilling and development activities, including the drilling of approximately 480 to 630 net wells. Investments in infrastructure, land and seismic represent approximately 16 percent of the budget. Planned infrastructure investments include gas plant expansions, new crude oil batteries, and pipeline infrastructure to provide for long-term growth.
“Our 2016 drilling program is very similar to 2015,” said Saxberg. “We are positioned in high-netback, light and medium gravity oil-weighted plays that continue to generate top-quartile returns. We have reduced capital costs across our entire asset base and at a US$50/bbl WTI oil price, approximately two-thirds of our 2016 drilling program is expected to generate payouts of two years or less. This excludes any additional benefit from our ongoing cost savings and waterflood initiatives.”
|(1) Other Properties includes properties in Alberta, Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba.|
By the end of 2016, Crescent Point expects to have waterfloods initiated in each of its core resource plays. The Company plans to accelerate the conversion of producing wells to water injection wells, targeting the conversion of more than 120 wells, an increase of more than 70 percent compared to 2015. These conversions will primarily take place in the Viewfield Bakken and Shaunavon oil resource plays. In addition, the Company plans to expand waterfloods in the unconventional Midale and Swan Hills plays. Waterflood pilots have also been budgeted for the Viking, Uinta Basin and Flat Lake plays. A successful waterflood pilot in Flat Lake would open up an additional opportunity for future waterflood development in the Three Forks zone, south of the Canada/U.S. border. The high-quality, shallow nature of the Company’s Saskatchewan plays provides the opportunity to outperform with lower cost and higher recovery factors relative to other plays in North America.
The Company has plans for additional long-term projects to test new completions technologies and drill several step-out wells within each play. Crescent Point’s long-term capital component of its 2016 budget targets expanding pool boundaries in its Viewfield Bakken and Shaunavon plays, as well as its earlier-stage Flat Lake, unconventional Midale and Uinta Basin plays. The Company’s 2016 step-out drilling plans in the Uinta Basin are expected to build on the Company’s horizontal and vertical drilling success in 2015 and recent 3-D seismic program. Crescent Point also has a large inventory of low-cost, high-return drilling opportunities within its conventional asset base across southeast Saskatchewan that forms a strong base for the Company’s 2016 capital program.
Only eight percent of the Company’s 2016 capital expenditures and approximately 10 percent of the Company’s estimated production is based in Alberta, reducing uncertainty associated with the ongoing Alberta royalty review.
Crescent Point is well positioned to generate strong operating and financial results through 2016. The Company is disciplined in its capital spending plans and expects to live within cash flow to protect its balance sheet, production and dividend.
Including the monetization of its 2017 and 2018 hedges, the Company expects to live within cash flow at WTI prices down to US$40/bbl. Approximately 34 percent of the Company’s 2016 oil production, net of royalty interest, is hedged at a weighted average price of approximately CDN$83/bbl.
During fourth quarter 2015, Crescent Point increased its capital by approximately $100 million in order to enhance its capital spending flexibility during 2016 and to enter the year with strong production levels. The Company plans to have an active drilling program during first quarter 2016 and will target production growth near the upper-end of its guidance range in a higher commodity price environment. If spot oil prices remain depressed, the Company expects its 2016 capital expenditures will be at the lower end of its range.
“It is key to point out that we’re not planning to just drill our best inventory in this budget,” said Saxberg. “We have approximately 7,500 locations in inventory with plans to drill fewer than 630 wells in 2016, which gives us a tremendous amount of flexibility in our capital allocation. For example, we could reallocate our long-term capital projects, which would result in an increase to our 2016 production guidance by approximately 3,000 boe/d if we so choose. However, we believe we still need to focus on both short- and long-term objectives in this environment.”
Crescent Point’s longer-term projects are expected to enhance the Company’s sustainability by lowering its corporate decline rate, improving its capital efficiencies and increasing the size and value of its resource base. Waterflood advancement has the potential to lower the Company’s relative corporate decline rate by four to seven percent per year over the next several years. This equates to a one to two percent annual change in the absolute corporate decline rate. Since 2011, Crescent Point has successfully lowered its corporate decline rate from 35 percent to 28 percent, a relative reduction of 20 percent.
“Our capital plans in 2016 balance our near-term production targets with our long-term development goals, plus provide us with the flexibility to respond to this volatile price environment,” said Saxberg.
Crescent Point retains a significant amount of liquidity with an estimated $1.4 billion of unutilized bank credit capacity at the end of 2015, and remains committed to maintaining its strong financial position and maximizing long-term shareholder return.
The Company’s guidance for 2016 is as follows:
|Oil and NGL (bbls/d)||147,500 – 153,500|
|Natural gas (mcf/d)||105,000 – 111,000|
|Total (boe/d)||165,000 – 172,000|
|Drilling and development ($000)||808,000 – 1,067,000|
|Facilities, land and seismic ($000)||142,000 – 233,000|
|Total ($000)||950,000 – 1,300,000|
|(1) The projection of capital expenditures excludes acquisitions, which are separately considered and evaluated.|