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crude_oil_cuttingsCRUDE OIL INVENTORY/’000 bbls (Week Ended 2/6/15)

Current: 417,928

Actual Build/(Withdrawal): 4,868

Economist Average Estimate: 3,613

Previous: 413,060

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ANALYST COMMENTARY

BMO Capital Markets

We believe this week’s data is negative for crude prices given the crude build once again exceeded expectations and pushed inventories to a new record high. We expect inventories to continue to build at a rapid pace over the next three months as U.S. production continues to grow and U.S. refiners move into the turnaround season.

KLR Group

Composite inventories increased ~3.6 Mmbbls, versus the consensus estimate of a ~2.7 Mmbbls build w/w. API reported a ~3.7 Mmbbls increase in composite inventories w/w. Crude oil supplies grew ~4.9 Mmbbls, while consensus expected a ~3.8 Mmbbls increase and API estimated a build of ~1.6 Mmbbls. Gasoline stocks increased ~2 Mmbbls versus the consensus estimate of a ~0.2 Mmbbls build w/w. API reported a build in gasoline stocks of ~1.6 Mmbbls w/w. Distillate inventories decreased ~3.3 Mmbbls w/w, versus the consensus estimate of a ~1.3 Mmbbls draw. API reported an increase in distillate stocks of approximately 0.5 Mmbbls.

Cushing stocks increased ~1.2 Mmbbls w/w to ~42.6 Mmbbls, while API reported a build of ~1 Mmbbls. Midwest stocks grew ~1.3 Mmbbls to ~124.2 Mmbbls (~87% of capacity). WTI decreased ~$0.45 after the report release and is currently down ~$0.95 today at ~$49.10.

Wells Fargo Securities

Refined product exports averaged 3,590 Mboe/d over the last four weeks versus 3,583 a year ago and the 5-yr average of 2,674 Mboe/d. Last week’s U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7,286 Mboe/d and declined by 101 Mboe/d versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 8,221 Mboe/d. Mogas imports averaged 462 Mboe/d and declined by 160 Mboe/d versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 787 Mboe/d. Distillate imports averaged 269 Mboe/d and decreased by 144 Mboe/d versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 290 Mboe/d.


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Important disclosures: The information provided herein is believed to be reliable; however, EnerCom, Inc. makes no representation or warranty as to its completeness or accuracy. EnerCom’s conclusions are based upon information gathered from sources deemed to be reliable. This note is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument of any company mentioned in this note. This note was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. All readers of the note must make their own investment decisions based upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Investors should consider a company’s entire financial and operational structure in making any investment decisions. Past performance of any company discussed in this note should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. EnerCom is a multi-disciplined management consulting services firm that regularly intends to seek business, or currently may be undertaking business, with companies covered on Oil & Gas 360®, and thereby seeks to receive compensation from these companies for its services. In addition, EnerCom, or its principals or employees, may have an economic interest in any of these companies. As a result, readers of EnerCom’s Oil & Gas 360® should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this note. EnerCom, or its principals or employees, may have an economic interest in any of the companies covered in this report or on Oil & Gas 360®. As a result, readers of EnerCom’s reports or Oil & Gas 360® should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.