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NOAA forecasts 80% chance that a strong El Nino will last through the end of the year

One of the strongest El Nino cycles in almost two decades is likely to persist through fall and possibly winter, according to both U.S. and Australian

Natural gas prices

Source: The Weather Channel

government meteorologists. An El Nino cycle will likely mean warmer than normal temperatures for the northern United States, translating into weaker demand for natural gas next winter.

Earlier this month, both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued oultooks that forecast El Nino to persist into northern hemisphere possibly into the winter months. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gave an 80% chance the El Nino will last through the rest of 2015, reports The Weather Channel.

El Nino is an anomalous, yet periodic, warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Every 2 to 7 years, this patch of ocean warms for a period of 6 to 18 months, affecting weather patterns.

El Nino cycles are far from the only determining factor in forecasting weather, but with cooler than average summer temperatures expected this year, continued mild temperatures throughout the U.S. could have a bearish effect on natural gas markets.

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Important disclosures: The information provided herein is believed to be reliable; however, EnerCom, Inc. makes no representation or warranty as to its completeness or accuracy. EnerCom’s conclusions are based upon information gathered from sources deemed to be reliable. This note is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument of any company mentioned in this note. This note was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. All readers of the note must make their own investment decisions based upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Investors should consider a company’s entire financial and operational structure in making any investment decisions. Past performance of any company discussed in this note should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. EnerCom is a multi-disciplined management consulting services firm that regularly intends to seek business, or currently may be undertaking business, with companies covered on Oil & Gas 360®, and thereby seeks to receive compensation from these companies for its services. In addition, EnerCom, or its principals or employees, may have an economic interest in any of these companies. As a result, readers of EnerCom’s Oil & Gas 360® should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this note. EnerCom, or its principals or employees, may have an economic interest in any of the companies covered in this report or on Oil & Gas 360®. As a result, readers of EnerCom’s reports or Oil & Gas 360® should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.