ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook Projects Energy Demand Increase and Decline in Carbon Intensity
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Global energy demand expected to increase 25 percent between
2014-2040, driven by population and economic growth
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Carbon intensity of the global economy to fall by half due to
significant energy efficiency gains and a gradual transition to less
carbon-intensive energy types
Global energy demand will increase 25 percent between 2014 and 2040,
driven by population growth and economic expansion, ExxonMobil
said today in the 2016 edition of The Outlook for Energy. At the
same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable energy
sources and lower carbon fuels, such as natural gas, are expected to
help reduce by half the carbon intensity of the global economy.
During the period, the world’s population will increase by about 2
billion people and emerging economies will continue to expand
significantly. Most growth in energy demand will occur in developing
nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD). Per capita income in those countries is likely
to increase by 135 percent.
Natural gas is expected to meet about 40 percent of the growth in global
energy needs and demand for the fuel will increase by 50 percent.
Nuclear and renewable energy sources – including bio-energy, hydro,
geothermal, wind, and solar – are also likely to account for nearly 40
percent of the growth in global energy demand by 2040. By then, they are
expected to make up nearly 25 percent of supplies of which nuclear alone
represents about one third.
“ExxonMobil’s analysis and those of independent agencies confirms our
long-standing view that all viable energy sources will be needed to meet
increasing demand,” said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive
officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation. “The Outlook for Energy is a useful
resource to help understand future energy supply and demand, which can
aid decisions by individuals, businesses and governments that together
will affect the future of energy.”
The outlook projects that global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
will peak around 2030 and then start to decline. Emissions in OECD
nations are projected to fall by about 20 percent from 2014 to 2040.
The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s long-range forecast
developed by its economists, engineers and scientists through
data-driven analysis. It examines energy supply and demand trends for
approximately 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 different energy
types.
“Our forecast is used as a foundation for the company’s business
strategies and to help guide multi-billion dollar investment decisions,”
said William Colton, vice president of ExxonMobil Corporate Strategic
Planning, which develops The Outlook for Energy. “For many years
the outlook has taken into account policies established to reduce
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The climate accord reached at
the recent COP 21 conference in Paris set many new goals, and while many
related policies are still emerging, the outlook continues to anticipate
that such policies will increase the cost of carbon dioxide emissions
over time.”
Key findings of the report include:
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In 2040, oil and natural gas are expected to make up nearly 60 percent
of global supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be approaching
25 percent. Oil will provide one third of the world’s energy in 2040,
remaining the No. 1 source of fuel, and natural gas will move into
second place.
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North America, which for decades had been an oil importer, is on pace
to become a net exporter around 2020.
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India will surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with 1.6
billion people. The two countries are expected to account for almost
half of the growth in global energy demand.
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Global demand for electricity is expected to increase by 65 percent,
and 85 percent of the increase is in non-OECD nations.
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The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to
fall to about 30 percent in 2040 from approximately 40 percent in 2014.
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Global energy demand from transportation is projected to rise by about
30 percent, and practically all the growth will be in non-OECD
countries.
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Sales of new hybrids are expected to jump from about 2 percent of
new-car sales in 2014 to more than 40 percent by 2040, when one in
four cars in the world will be a hybrid. Average fuel economy will
rise from 25 to about 45 miles per gallon.
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Already the world’s largest oil-importing region, Asia Pacific’s net
imports are projected to rise by more than 50 percent by 2040 as
domestic production remains steady and demand increases.
For more information about The Outlook for Energy, visit www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook.
Cautionary Statement: Statements in The Outlook for Energy and
this release relating to future events or conditions are forward-looking
statements. Actual future global or local conditions (including economic
conditions and growth, population growth, energy demand growth and mix,
energy supply sources, efficiency gains, the impact of technology, and
carbon emissions) could differ materially due to changes in supply and
demand and market conditions affecting oil, gas, and other energy
prices; changes in law or government regulation and other political
events; changes in technology; the occurrence and duration of economic
recessions; the actions of competitors; the development of new supply
sources; demographic changes; and changes in other assumptions or
factors discussed in The Outlook for Energy and under the heading
“Factors Affecting Future Results” on the Investors page of our website
at www.exxonmobil.com.
See also Item 1A of ExxonMobil’s latest Form 10-K.
About ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil,
the largest publicly traded international oil and gas company, uses
technology and innovation to help meet the world’s growing energy needs.
ExxonMobil holds an industry leading inventory of resources, is the
largest refiner and marketer of petroleum products, and its chemical
company is one of the largest in the world. Follow ExxonMobil on Twitter
at www.twitter.com/exxonmobil.
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