EIA: Transportation and residential demand will slow, but industrial and commercial will push overall growth
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects energy demand growth through 2040 will come from the industrial and commercial sectors, while residential and transportation energy demand growth will remain flat, or decline slightly. According to the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015, domestic consumption is expected to grow by 0.3% per year through 2040.
Increases in energy consumption are mostly related to economic activity, and U.S. industrial and commercial enterprises are projected to increase output more rapidly than countervailing influences from improved technologies. While energy intensity, measured as the amount of energy per unit of output, is expected to decline, industrial energy consumption will still rise by 0.7% per year through 2040, according to the EIA. Commercial consumption is expected to rise 0.5% per year during the same period.
Residential consumption is expected to remain flat as most energy-consuming equipment and appliances in U.S. homes become more efficient, and the population shifts towards warmer climates. Transportation demand is expected to decline by 0.1% per year as gasoline consumption falls 21% by 2040 due to improvements in fuel efficiency.
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