Story by Bloomberg
A rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar may send Brent oil to as low as $20 a barrel, according to Morgan Stanley.
Oil is particularly leveraged to the dollar and may fall between 10 to 25 percent if the currency gains 5 percent, Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson said in a research note dated Jan. 11. A global glut may have pushed oil prices under $60 a barrel, but the difference between $35 and $55 is primarily the U.S. dollar, according to the report.
“Given the continued U.S. dollar appreciation, $20-$25 oil price scenarios are possible simply due to currency,” the analysts wrote in the report. “The U.S. dollar and non-fundamental factors continue to drive oil prices.”
Brent crude capped its third annual decline in 2015 and has already lost more than 11 percent so far this year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries effectively abandoned output limits in December, potentially worsening a global glut, while U.S. stockpiles remain about 100 million barrels above the five-year average.