Thanks in part to the U.S. shale oil boom, OPEC is predicting that its share of the world oil market will shrink in 2015 for a third year running, Reuters reported on Thursday. In its 2015 Oil Market Outlook, OPEC sees demand for its oil next year at 29.37 million barrels of oil per day (BOPD), down 0.31 million BOPD from 2014.
The report says outages in OPEC countries like Libya, Iraq and Iran curbed supply this year and helped support prices above $100 a barrel.
The report is also a further illustration that technology for extracting oil and gas from shale is, for now, reducing the world’s dependence on OPEC, Reuters reported. “…non-OPEC supply, the source of two in every three barrels, is expected to increase next year by 1.31 million BOPD, more than demand, with the United States leading the way.”
OPEC believes U.S. production will average 13.12 million BOPD in 2015, up 0.88 million BOPD from 2014, but warned that a drop in oil prices could slow the expansion.
In its report OPEC said its members will boost supply of natural gas liquids and non-conventional oil by 0.20 million BOPD in 2015, further reducing the need for its members’ crude oil.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook was released on July 8. “The 2015 forecast represents the highest annual average level of [U.S.] oil production since 1972,” the report said. “U.S. total crude oil production, which averaged 7.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013, is expected to average 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015.” Overall production is estimated at 10.0 million BOPD in 2013 and is forecasted to rise to 12.3 million BOPD in 2015, representing a 0.82 million BOPD difference compared to OPEC’s prediction.
The EIA said rising oil production, particularly in North Dakota and Texas, along with a rise in natural gas liquids production, have cut into petroleum imports.
The U.S. and Canada are expected to deliver most of the world’s projected growth in production of oil and other liquid fuel through 2015, while China and developing countries will provide the consumption growth, according to the EIA forecast.
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