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OPEC member exports expected to rise the most from political developments in Q3

PRIX

Source: PRIX

The PRIX index, which forecasts the effects of political developments on oil exports, fell one point to 55 for the third quarter of 2015. The index works in much the same way as a purchasing manager index (PMI), in that it is based on polls of experts from each of the top 20 oil producing countries in the world.

A PRIX number of 55 means that experts expect the flow of oil to international markets to continue increasing, but at a slower rate than in the second quarter when the index number was 56. On the index’s scale, a score of 0 represents a maximum reduction in exports, 100 represents a maximum increase in exports, and 50 represents no change.

Of the ten countries expected to see the most increases oil exports, six are OPEC members, including the two countries expected to increase exports the most: Iraq and Iran. The other OPEC members expected to increase production include Angola, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela.

The largest changes from the first to the second quarter of 2015 were in Libya Oman and Azerbaijan (which shifted towards expectations of rising oil exports, and Ecuador, Qatar and Mexico (which shifted towards expectations of falling oil exports).

Prix

Source: PRIX


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