Geopolitics in commodity markets can be one of the hardest factors to predict when forecasting global market movements.
The most recent update to the PRIX Index, published April 30, showed an overall value of 56, meaning exports from the world’s 20 largest oil exporters are expected rise slightly.
The PRIX Index polls experts from major petroleum-producing countries to tally their opinions on future of exports from each country. Dr. Indra Øverland, spokesman for the PRIX Index, provided this graph to Oil & Gas 360® showing the score for individual countries tracked by the PRIX Index.
A value above 50 on the Y-axis shows the PRIX experts expect exports to increase, while a value below 50 shows the experts looking at the geopolitical situation expect exports to decrease. The X-axis shows the level of agreement among the experts polled for the PRIX Index.
A value of 50 on the PRIX Index indicates no change. For example, Qatar, Kuwait and Ecuador are all expected to maintain export levels, with experts agreeing on that outcome. Iraq is expected to increase its exports more than any other country in the index, but there was more variability in the predictions from the country analysts.
Important disclosures: The information provided herein is believed to be reliable; however, EnerCom, Inc. makes no representation or warranty as to its completeness or accuracy. EnerCom’s conclusions are based upon information gathered from sources deemed to be reliable. This note is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument of any company mentioned in this note. This note was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. All readers of the note must make their own investment decisions based upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Investors should consider a company’s entire financial and operational structure in making any investment decisions. Past performance of any company discussed in this note should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. EnerCom is a multi-disciplined management consulting services firm that regularly intends to seek business, or currently may be undertaking business, with companies covered on Oil & Gas 360®, and thereby seeks to receive compensation from these companies for its services. In addition, EnerCom, or its principals or employees, may have an economic interest in any of these companies. As a result, readers of EnerCom’s Oil & Gas 360® should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this note. The company or companies covered in this note did not review the note prior to publication. EnerCom, or its principals or employees, may have an economic interest in any of the companies covered in this report or on Oil & Gas 360®. As a result, readers of EnerCom’s reports or Oil & Gas 360® should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.