ISTANBUL, October 5. /TASS/. The high volatility of oil prices is over and, consequently, the ruble is close to its fundamental values, Russia’s Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev told journalists Monday.
“I assume that the oil prices have come to a relative balance in the short term, maybe in the longer term, too. There will be less volatility. A new balance is currently being formed,” he said.
According to Ulyukayev, the ruble is almost not connected to the capital movement, it is strongly focused on the balance of trade and, consequently, the price of oil.
The volatility of oil prices is currently very low, he said. “It jumps around $47 — a little higher, a little below it. Accordingly, it is reflected in the exchange rate dynamics,” the Minister said.
According to him, the period of high volatility in oil prices is over in the long-term and the ruble exchange rate is near the fundamental values. “I see no reason for any big movements in either direction,” Ulyukayev said.
He added that the Russian banks are not very dependent on the devaluation of the Russian currency. Ulyukayev said that there the only risk for the Russian banking system in case of devaluation of the ruble. “This is additional demand for provisions. Inflation risks are higher with the devaluation, the risks of a more conservative policy of the Russian Central Bank on the key rate are also higher. For the banks’ balances it means that there are additional NPL risks, they need to create more provisions. More provisions entail deductions from the capital,” Ulyukayev said.