Russian oil production is likely reach another post-Soviet record high in 2017 after a global deal to cut output expires at the end of June, a Reuters poll of analysts and consultants showed on Tuesday.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil producers, led by Russia, agreed last month to cut their oil output during the first six months of the year to prop up prices.
Russia, among the world’s biggest oil producers, plans to reduce output by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter and then by 300,000 bpd, as agreed with OPEC. Its targeted level is 10.947 million bpd, compared with the October base level of 11.247 million bpd.
Moscow cut oil production in early January by about 100,000 bpd from the the previous month.
Russian oil production has risen every year bar one since 1998, with the only decline being a small drop in 2008. Last year production reached 10.96 million bpd, up from 10.72 million bpd in 2015, thanks to new fields coming online.
Most analysts believe that the deal with OPEC will not extend beyond the first half of 2017 and Russian oil producers will boost production to take advantage of higher oil prices. Christian Boermel, a research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said that he expects Russian oil production to increase again in the second half of 2017.
“By December, Russian oil production will have reached new record levels, setting the scene for further increases in 2018, supported by a higher oil price,” he said.
Following is a table of Russian output forecast for 2017 in million barrels per day.
Wood Mackenzie 11.100
ESAI Energy 11.000
Energy Aspects 11.000
GL Asset Management 11.100
UralSib 10.920
VYGON Consulting 11.000
EY 11.100
Sberbank CIB 11.197
JBC Energy 11.138
Akra 11.040
Energy Ministry* 11.000 Average 11.054 Russia’s Energy Ministry has forecast 2017 output at 548 million tonnes to 551 million tonnes (11.01 million bpd to 11.07 million bpd)
