Seven Things to Know about the Future of Energy

ExxonMobil sees a rosy energy future underpinned by global oil and gas demand

“Over the next several decades, we see seven key themes that will shape our energy landscape,” William Colton, ExxonMobil’s (ticker: XOM) VP of corporate strategic planning, said about the company’s newest energy outlook.

“The future we expect to see in 2040 will be one of greater prosperity for more people, increased economic growth, and more robust international trade, as well as vastly improved efficiency and falling emissions,” Colton said.

Here is the future that ExxonMobil sees:

1. Energy will underpin economic growth.
2. Developing countries will lead the way for energy demand.
3. The global energy mix will continue to evolve; nuclear and renewables in particular will grow strongly, approaching a 25 percent share of the world’s energy in 2040.
4. Natural gas will lead the growth in global energy demand.
5. Oil will continue to play a leading role, with demand driven by fuel for transportation and feedstock for petrochemicals.
6. Energy-related CO2 emissions will peak during the 2030s and then begin to decline even as global GDP grows.
7. Technological advances will enable improved efficiency, slow energy demand growth, and open up new supplies of energy. Technology will help moderate the carbon intensity of energy use, which will help lower the carbon intensity of the world economy by 45 percent by 2040.

Source: ExxonMobil

Average electricity use per household will rise about 30 percent between 2015 and 2040. The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall to about 30 percent from approximately 40 percent in 2015 as the use of lower-emission energy sources including natural gas, nuclear and renewables increases, the company said in a press release.

“As economies expand around the world, energy demand will increase as more people seek higher standards of living,” Colton said.  “Humanity’s dual challenge is to meet growing energy demand while managing the risk of climate change. Our Outlook for Energy can help people understand factors influencing future energy supply and demand and inform industries and governments as they consider future energy policy.”

With the global middle class more than doubling to about 5 billion, the number of cars, sport-utility vehicles and pickups are expected to increase about 80 percent to 1.8 billion vehicles by 2040. During the same period, average new car fuel economy will improve from about 30 miles per gallon to nearly 50 miles per gallon, reflecting significant strides in efficiency of conventional vehicles and a shift in the fleet mix favoring hybrid vehicles, the report shows.