Ok, first for disclosures. Yes, EnerCom, Inc. and Oil & Gas 360® are based in Denver, Colorado. Yes, we’ve sampled Rocky Mountain Oysters at the games. Yes, we have a demonic 32-foot horse statue at our airport. And yes, one particular person at our office may or may not wear a barrel (and only a barrel) on Sunday in honor of our most famous fan (R.I.P., Barrel Man).
But please, stick with us here. If history repeats itself, the oil and gas market should be rooting for a Denver Broncos victory this Sunday. And here’s why:
When Denver wins the Super Bowl, oil prices go up
In January 1999, the Broncos won Super Bowl XXXIII in John Elway’s final game. By summer, WTI prices climbed above the $20/barrel marker and surpassed $27/barrel in the fall. On a year-over-year basis, average prices jumped by 34%. The price at year-end 1999 is double compared to the price on the day of the Broncos’ last Super Bowl victory, its second in franchise history.
When Peyton Manning wins the Super Bowl, oil prices go up
At this time, oil was trading in the high $50s as the shale boom was beginning to take effect. By year end, oil prices were approaching $100/barrel, a level that was previously unprecedented.
At the beginning of the season, Lucas Oil purchased the naming rights to the very stadium Manning called home.
When Carolina loses the Super Bowl, oil prices go up
While the oil price reaction was a little more prolonged compared to the Manning and Broncos wins, WTI did climb out of its familiar mid-$30’s per barrel costs at the time of the loss and jumped into the mid-$50’s range by summer.
By the way, average monthly WTI prices in January 2004 were $33.04. In January 2016, the average monthly spot price was $33.62. We’re not saying, but we’re just saying…
When Denver loses the Super Bowl, oil prices go down
Anyways, the chart on the right is a mirror image of our hope throughout that miserable game.
We don’t need to remind our readers of what happened with OPEC and Saudi Arabia in the latter half of that year, so we’ll just say prices at year-end 2014 were 45% lower than the day of the Broncos Super Bowl loss.
When Ron Rivera wins the Super Bowl, oil prices go down
Before Ron Rivera was the head coach of the Panthers, he was a key member of a dominant Chicago Bears defense in the mid-1980s. In reference to our theory, the oil markets responded accordingly to the Bears victory in Super Bowl 20. Prices dropped 46% in the six months following the game on January 26, 1986 and did not return to the $20/barrel level until June 1987.
Big Game Stats v. Oil Stats
The average cost of a 30-second Super Bowl commercial is about $5 million. Meanwhile, the United States government is offering a $5 million reward for any tips related to ISIS finances generated from its oil sales.
A Broncos Super Bowl victory would be the 200th career win for Peyton Manning. Oil companies worldwide have reportedly shelved about $200 billion in projects until commodity prices recover.
Manning (age 39) is also the oldest quarterback to start the Super Bowl. He was born in 1976 – just one year after the U.S. first enacted a crude export ban.
Resale sites for suites at Levi’s Stadium are asking anywhere from $150,000 to $400,000 per 20-person suite. In a vacuum, the costs of the high end suite could nab you about 17 acres of the recent STACK position acquired by Devon Energy.
Random: A reported 114.4 million Americans (36% of the population) tuned in to last year’s Super Bowl. By comparison, roughly 129.2 million Americans (41% of the population) voted in the 2012 presidential election.
Win or lose, San Francisco will host another international event next month: The Oil & Services Conference™ 14. See you there!