While constructive on balance, this week’s report failed to meet lofty expectations. Contrasting last week’s broad bullish readings, this week’s data proved more balanced. While crude and product inventories declined, overall inventory retrenchment fell shy of consensus projections. And though refinery utilization increased after recent drops, imports surged 1.0 MMbbls/d following two weekly declines. This mixed report may not hold enough force to spring WTI from the upper $40s.

Wells Fargo

Summary.  Total net inventories were up 4.3 MMboe vs. the prior week and included a 1.8 MMbbls crude draw offset by a 6.0 MMboe net build in total product stocks. Refined products posted builds in all except mogas, distillate and jet. Total products supplied decreased, while refinery inputs and utilization increased versus the prior week. Crude stocks declined in PADDs III and IV and included a 5.5 MMbbls draw in PADD III. Guesstimated crude production was down 9 Mbopd vs. the prior week, with L48 production up 12 Mbopd. Mogas imports declined, while distillate and crude (+970 Mbopd) increased vs. the prior week. The front month WTI contract is trading at roughly $49.25/bbl, or up roughly 1.2% versus yesterday’s (5/16) close of $48.66/bbl.


Crude oil supplies decreased ~1.8 Mmbbls last week versus the consensus estimate of a ~2.7 Mmbbls draw. API reported an increase in crude oil supplies of ~0.9 Mmbbls. Cushing stocks increased fractionally w/w to ~66.3 Mmbbls (~91% of capacity) versus the API estimate of a ~0.5 Mmbbls draw.

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