JOHNSON RICE & COMPANY
The EIA reported injections of 67 bcf, raising gas in storage to 2,256 bcf. The injection is above our 55 bcf injection and the Bloomberg consensus of a 62 bcf injection (53 bcf to 72 bcf injection est. range). This year we had 55 HDD/11 CDDs and an injection of 67 bcf, last year we had 54 HDD/13 CDDs and a 68 bcf injection, and the five year average is 72 HDD/9 CDDs and a 72 bcf injection.
BMO Capital Markets
We believe the storage report will be viewed as slightly negative. Storage is trending below last year’s levels; however, rising associated gas production should keep U.S. storage levels at, or above, five-year averages, assuming normal weather.
Seaport Global
Import and export parity was essentially achieved in February, according to the EIA’s estimates in its Natural Gas Monthly, for the month of February 2017. Imports came in at 9.03 Bcfpd and exports came in at 9.022 Bcfpd. Exports via LNG tankers was an estimated 1.86 Bcfpd, or 20.6% of exports. US gross gas production was estimated at 90.0 Bcfpd, contracting by 2.19% YoY, an improvement compared to December and January. Gross gas production in the Bakken increased to 1.71 Bcfpd from 1.56 Bcfpd in January 2017, and is now showing YoY growth of 3.55%. The Appalachian Basin dominated YoY growth metrics, coming in at 4.3% growth. Domestic consumption was weak, but Industrial sector consumption continued to grow.
Baird Equity Research
Larger-than-expected rise in weekly inventories should add further weight to an increasingly heavy technical feel to gas. This week’s upside build will further challenge the 12-month Henry Hub strip, which recently has tested new local lows in the $3.30/MMbtu area. With current below-normal temps in the central U.S. contrasting the broader warmer-than-normal trend forecasted for the summer, day-to-day trading likely faces more kinks. 1Q17 onshore E&P reports underscore the potential for efficiency-related supply gains as 2017 progresses, another potential pricing negative.
Wells Fargo
Summary. Natural Gas storage injection for the week ending 4/28/2017 came in at 67 Bcf versus our estimate and consensus at 62 Bcf. Absolute natural gas storage levels are now 2.256 Tcf, 369 Bcf below last year. After the release, front month gas contracts traded at $3.19/MMBtu, down approximately 1% versus levels prior to the release.
UBS
Storage rose 67 Bcf, above the consensus estimate of a 62 Bcf injection and the UBSe range of a 55-65 Bcf injection. This week’s injection compared to the year-ago 68 Bcf and the 5-year average of a 62 Bcf injection. Inventories increased to 2,256 Bcf, slightly widening the deficit vs. last year to 369 Bcf while widening the surplus vs. the 5-year average to 336 Bcf.
We forecast a 45-55 Bcf injection next week, compared to the year-ago 56 Bcf and the 5-year average of a 67 Bcf injection. Over the last month, the weather-adjusted S/D has been 0.6 Bcfd undersupplied vs. last year and 0.9 Bcfd undersupplied vs. the 5-year average. This tightness is driven by demand growth, a 1.65 Bcfd YoY decline in production over the last month, and low natural gas prices increasing coal-to-natural gas fuel switching by 4.1 Bcfd in 2015 and another 1 Bcfd in 2016 (although power burns are down on a YoY basis for 27 consecutive weeks). With this year’s withdrawal season closing with inventories at 2.05 Tcf (240 Bcf above the 5-year average), we project the storage refill season ends with inventories beginning next winter at ~3.75 Tcf (~100 Bcf below the 5-year average).
