EnerCom, Inc. has compiled first quarter earnings per share, revenue, EBITDA and cash flow per share analyst consensus estimates on 155 E&P and OilService companies in our database.

Download EnerCom’s 155-company earnings tables here.

The median OilServices company earnings estimate for the quarter ending March 31, 2017, is ($0.09) per share compared to actual earnings per share of ($0.22) and ($0.16) for Q4’16 and Q3’16, respectively. The median E&P company earnings estimate for the quarter ending March 31, 2017, is $0.02 per share compared to actual earnings per share of ($0.25) and ($0.09) for Q4’16 and Q3’16, respectively.

EIA predicts that production and consumption will both grow through 2018; however production will not grow as rapidly as consumption, tightening global balances.

Energy Commodities

Crude Oil

U.S. oil consumption in March 2017 was 19.6 MMBOPD, up 2.6% from the previous month and down 0.1% from the same month in 2016. For March 2017, U.S. crude oil production was 9.1 MMBOPD, 1.1% higher than in February and down 1.1% from a year ago. The average near-term futures price for WTI in March 2017 was $48.78 per barrel, down 8.7% from the prior month and up 23.7% from the same month last year. The five-year strip at March 18, 2017 was $54.36 per barrel.

The median analyst estimate at the beginning of April for first quarter 2018 NYMEX oil was $57.00 per barrel with a high of $70.00 and a low of $30.00 per barrel.

Natural Gas

For March 2017, total natural gas consumption was 80.0 Bcf/d, down 1.6% from the month prior and 5% higher than the same month last year. Total natural gas production in March 2017 was 71.2 Bcf/d, up 0.7% from the month prior and down 6.6% from the same month last year.

At 2.1 Tcf (week ending 4/7/17), natural gas storage was 15.6% above the five-year historical average, and 16.8% below the five-year high. The average near-term futures price for Henry Hub in March 2017, was $2.95 per MMBtu, 4.2% higher than the previous month and 54.5% higher than in March of last year.  The five0year strip at March 18, 2017 for first quarter 2018 NYMEX gas was $2.77 per MMBtu with a high of $3.57 and a low of $2.50 per MMBtu.

Rig Count – U.S. Rig Count Increases

The U.S. rig count stood at 847 for the week ended April 13, 2017, an increase of eight rigs from the week ended April 7, 2017, and an increase of 367 from the same week last year.

For the week ended April 13, 2017, there were 706 horizontal rigs active in the United States, an increase of 111.5% from the same week a year ago. By play and as compared to the same week last year, rig count changes for the week ended April 13, 2017, include Haynesville (+25 rigs), Fayetteville Shale (+1 rig), Woodford Shale (+7 rigs), Appalachian Basin (+42 rigs), Williston Basin (+17 rigs), Eagle Ford Shale (+33 rigs), DJ Niobrara (+9 rigs) and Permian Basin (+198 rigs).

Equity Markets

From EnerCom’s E&P Database: For April 13, 2017, year-to-date large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap and micro-cap E&P stocks changed by -9%, -10%, -18% and -19%, respectively. Year-to-date, oil-weighted and gas-weighted companies gained -12.3% and -9.9%, respectively.

By region as of April, 2017, year-to-date, Bakken, Midcontinent, Marcellus, Gulf of Mexico, Canada, and Diversified stocks changed by -31.3%, -11.6%, -15.0%, -25.0%, -16.6%, and -17.3% respectively.

From EnerCom’s Oil Service’s Database: As of April 13, 2017, year-to-date, OilService’s large-cap and mid-cap stocks changed by -5.8%, -12.3%, respectively, while small-cap and micro-cap stocks changed by -21.6%, and -39.9% respectively.

Expected Themes for Conference Calls

Below are some themes and thoughts we expect to take prominence on this quarter’s conference calls.

E&P Companies:

  • Operating efficiencies
  • Liquidity, capital market funding and debt maturities
  • Size of drilling inventory
  • Potential for M&A activity
  • Hedge position
  • Service cost control
  • 2017 CapEx and activity levels – exploration vs. development

OilService companies:

  • Global economic outlook
  • 2017 Capex and activity levels
  • Balance sheet strength and near-term debt maturities
  • Increasing activity and improving health from the customer base
  • Rig count projections
  • Trends and outlook on dayrates and backlog
  • Oilfield service equipment utilization rates and the potential for added capacity
  • Backlog of completions
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