EnerCom, Inc. compiled third quarter earnings per share, revenue, EBITDA and cash flow per share analyst consensus estimates on 163 E&P and OilService companies in our database.
Click here for EnerCom’s full chart of estimates.
The median OilServices company earnings estimate for the quarter ending September 30, 2016, is ($0.11) per share compared to actual earnings per share of ($0.19) and ($0.11) for Q2’16 and Q1’16, respectively. The median E&P company earnings estimate for the quarter ending September 30, 2016, is ($0.04) per share compared to actual earnings per share of ($0.39) and ($0.37) for Q2’16 and Q1’16, respectively.
Energy Commodities
Crude Oil. U.S. oil consumption in July 2016, was 19.7 MMBOPD, down 0.4% compared to the prior month and 2.1% lower than the same month last year. For July 2016, U.S. crude oil production was 8.7 MMBOPD, down 0.2% compared to the prior month and 7.8% lower than the same month last year. The average near-term futures price for WTI in September 2016, was $45.23 per barrel, up 1.0% from the prior month but 0.5% lower than the same month last year. The five-year strip at October 25, 2016 was $55.48 per barrel.
The median analyst estimate at the beginning of October for 2017 NYMEX oil was $43.49 per barrel with a high of $54.00 per barrel and a low of $40.00 per barrel.
Natural Gas. In July 2016, total natural gas consumption was 71.1 Bcf/d, up 5.9% from the prior month and up 6.1% from the same month last year. Total natural gas production in July 2016 was 87.4 Bcf/d, down 0.5% from June 2016, and down 1.8% over the same month last year.
At 3.8 Tcf (week ending 10/14/15), natural gas storage was 5.1% above the five-year historical average, and 1.1% above the five-year high. The average near-term futures price for Henry Hub in September 2016, increased to $2.90 per MMBtu or 6.7% higher than the prior month and 10.0% lower than the same month last year. The five-year strip at October 25, 2016, was $3.02 per MMBtu. The median analyst estimate at the beginning of October for 2016 NYMEX gas was $3.03 per MMBtu with a high of $3.50 per MMBtu and a low of $2.10 per MMBtu.
Rig Count — U.S. Land Rig Count Increases
The U.S. land rig count sourced from RigData on October 21, 2016, stood at 604 rigs, an increase of 29 from October 14, 2016, and a decrease of 1,447 rigs from Q3’14, of which 74% were operating horizontally.
On October 21, 2016, there were 488 horizontal rigs in the U.S., a decrease of 68% from 1,370 in Q3’2014. By play and as compared to Q3’14, rig count changes on October 21, 2016 include Haynesville (-22 rigs), Fayetteville Shale (-9 rigs), Woodford Shale (-2 rig), Appalachian Basin (-107 rigs), Williston Basin (-164 rigs), Eagle Ford Shale (-173 rigs), DJ Niobrara (-40 rigs) and Permian Basin (-278 rigs).
Equity Markets
From EnerCom’s E&P Database: For October 7, 2016, year-to-date large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap and micro-cap E&P stocks changed by +37.3%, +61.3%, +38.2% and 26.6%, respectively. Year-to-date, oil-weighted and gas-weighted companies gained +55.0% and +49.3%, respectively.
By region as of October, 2016, year-to-date, Bakken, Midcontinent, Marcellus, Gulf of Mexico, Canada, and Diversified stocks changed by +29.0%, +84.9%, +80.5%, +11.8%, +50.4%, and +41.9% respectively.
From EnerCom’s Oil Service’s Database: As of October 7, 2016, year-to-date, Oil Service’s large-cap and mid-cap stocks changed by -1.3%, +7.9%, respectively, while small-cap and micro-cap stocks changed by +7.6%, and -7.1% respectively.
Expected Themes for Conference Calls
Below are some themes and thoughts we expect to take prominence on this quarter’s conference calls.
E&P Companies:
- Operating efficiencies
- Liquidity, capital market funding, and debt maturities
- 2017 commodity price outlook
- Potential for increasing M&A activity in E&P
- Hedge position and cost control
- Midstream contracts and take-away capacity
- 2016 CapEx and activity levels – exploration vs. development
- Oilfield service costs and outlook
- Crude oil and natural gas differentials (Wattenberg, Bakken, etc.)
- Crude delivery and refining systems (rail systems, etc.)
- Wells drilled awaiting delayed completions
OilService Companies:
- Global economic outlook
- 2016 CapEx and activity levels
- Potential for increasing M&A
- Balance sheet strength and near-term debt maturities
- Health of customer base
- Rig Count – Effects of drilling efficiencies
- Trends and outlook on dayrates and backlog (onshore and offshore drillers)
- Oilfield service equipment utilization rates
- Backlog of completions
