Seems like just yesterday it was Q1 reporting season. But time accelerates quarterly in the public company universe and it’s already that time again. Schlumberger (ticker: SLB) reports tomorrow.
EnerCom, Inc. has compiled second quarter earnings per share, revenue, EBITDA and cash flow per share analyst consensus estimates on 115 E&P and 83 Oilfield Service companies in the EnerCom database.
Download EnerCom’s full chart of estimates.
The median OilServices company earnings estimate for the quarter ending June 30, 2018, is ($0.02) per share compared to a loss per share of ($0.06) and ($0.06), for Q1’18 and Q4’17, respectively. The median E&P company earnings estimate for the quarter ending June 30, 2018, is $0.11 per share compared to actual earnings per share of $0.06 and $0.06 for Q1’18 and Q4’17, respectively.
Energy Commodities
Crude Oil
U.S. oil consumption in April 2018 was 19.9 MMBOPD, down 3.1% from the previous month and up 2.0% from the same month in 2017. For April 2018, U.S. crude oil production was 10.5 MMBOPD, flat from March production and up 18.6% from a year ago. The average spot price for WTI in June 2018 was $67.87 per barrel, down 2.9% from the prior month and up 50.2% from the same month last year. The five-year strip at July 19, 2018 was $53.33 per barrel.
Source: EnerCom Analytics
The median analyst estimate at the beginning of July for 2018 NYMEX oil was $65.20 per barrel with a high of $72.31 and a low of $54.00 per barrel.
Natural Gas
For April 2018, total natural gas consumption was 78.0 Bcf/d, down 12.5% from the month prior and 21.5% higher than the same month last year. Total natural gas production in April 2018 was 79.7 Bcf/d, up 0.1% from the month prior and up 11.1% from the same month last year.
At 2.2 Tcf (week ending 7/13/18), natural gas storage was 19.2% below the five-year historical average, and 31.2% below the five-year high. The average spot price for Henry Hub in June 2018 was $2.97 per MMBtu, 6.1% greater than the previous month and flat with June of last year. The five-year strip at July 19, 2018 was $2.57 per MMBtu.
Source: EnerCom Analytics
The median analyst estimate at the beginning of July for 2018 NYMEX Henry Hub was $2.91 per MMBtu with a high of $3.08 and a low of $2.68 per MMBtu.
Rig Count – U.S. Rig Count Increases
The U.S. rig count stood at 1,054 for the week ended July 13, 2018, up 2 from the week ended July 6, 2018, and an increase of 102 from the same week last year.
For the week ended July 13, 2018, there were 930 horizontal rigs active in the United States, an increase of 15.7% from the same week a year ago. By play and as compared to the same week last year, rig count changes for the week ended July 13, 2018, include Haynesville (+6 rigs), Fayetteville Shale (-1 rig), Woodford Shale (+9 rigs), Appalachian Basin (+3 rigs), Williston Basin (+4 rigs), Eagle Ford Shale (+1 rig), DJ Niobrara (-4 rigs) and Permian Basin (+103 rigs).
Equity Markets
From EnerCom’s E&P database: For July 13, 2018, year-to-date large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap and micro-cap E&P stocks changed by 11%, 29%, 39% and 36%, respectively. Year-to-date, oil-weighted and gas-weighted companies moved 46.0% and 1.4%, respectively.
By region as of July 13, 2018, year-to-date, Bakken, Midcontinent, Marcellus, Gulf of Mexico, Canada, and Diversified stocks changed by 55%, -2%, -4%, 30%, -1%, and 27% respectively.
From EnerCom’s Oil Service’s Database: As of July 13, 2018, year-to-date, OilService’s large-cap and mid-cap stocks changed by 8%, -1%, respectively, while small-cap and micro-cap stocks changed by 0%, and 13% respectively.
Expected Themes for Conference Calls
Below are some themes and thoughts we expect to take prominence on the 2018 Q1 conference calls.
E&P Companies:
- Oil takeaway capacity
- Potential slowing of growth
- Possible capital reallocation
- Gas takeaway
- Differentials
- Activity levels in light of current oil prices
- Returning cash to shareholders
- Full cycle returns
- Potential for M&A activity
- Liquidity, capital market funding and debt maturities
- Transitioning into development mode
- Service cost inflation
- Completions availability
- Hedge positions
- Operating efficiencies
OilService companies:
- Global economic outlook
- U.S. vs international activity
- Potential impacts of sanctions and changing trade relationships
- Maintenance needs
- Where new equipment is going
- Margin trends
- Rig count projections
- Pricing trends
- Oilfield service equipment utilization rates and the potential for added capacity
- Service cost inflation
- Equipment newbuild potential
- Availability of experienced crews
- Infrastructure buildout and bottlenecks (particularly water and sand)
