BP says U.S. shale gas output to more than double
In its recently released 2017 Energy Outlook, BP outlines its predictions for global energy production and consumption through 2035.
Global consumption of energy is expected to increase by 30% through 2035, driven primarily by growth in emerging economies, especially China and India.
Oil, gas and coal remain dominant; demand for petrochemical feedstocks remains robust
Renewables, hydroelectric, and nuclear power are expected to provide half of the overall growth in the next 20 years, but oil, gas, and coal will remain the dominant energy sources. Demand growth in industrial and transportation sectors is expected to slow, while non-combusted (e.g. petrochemical feedstocks) demand growth remains robust.
Source: BP
Oil demand to reach 110 MMBOPD by 2035, then growth slows but remains positive
Oil demand is predicted to grow by an average of 0.7% per year to reach 110 million barrels per day by 2035; however demand growth is expected to gradually decrease due to increases in transportation fuel efficiency. Electric vehicles will grow in popularity but BP does not expect this growth to significantly affect oil demand. Supply growth will be seen primarily in low-cost producers.
Middle Eastern OPEC output is expected to grow by 9 million barrels per day, while U.S. output is expected to grow by 4 million barrels per day.
Source: BP
U.S. shale gas output to more than double
BP predicts that natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 1.6% per year, replacing coal as the second largest fuel source by 2035.
Much of this growth will be supplied by U.S. shale gas, which is expected to grow by 43 Bcf/d. Demand growth from industrial and power sectors will dominate, accounting for a combined 81% of the overall natural gas demand increase, according to BP. Chinese gas consumption will continue to grow, rising from 30% of global consumption to 40% by 2035.
Source: BP
Significant increase in global LNG supply and demand
Global LNG supplies are expected to increase through 2035, primarily fueled by growth in the U.S. and Australia. Much of this supply growth will occur in the next four years as several large projects are brought online. Asia will remain the primary source of LNG demand, mostly due to growth in China and India. LNG will grow much faster than pipeline gas, growing from 32% to half of all globally traded gas by 2035.
Source: BP
