China Reassures, CPI Out and UK Jobs Steady

Stocks were mixed in Asian trade. The Nikkei lost 0.8% and the Hang Seng was down a slight fraction, but Shanghai was up 0.2% and Australia rose a slight fraction. European indexes are mixed this morning as well, with the DAX up a third of a percent and the Footsie slightly higher. US stock futures are essentially flat.

*Chinese Premier Li Keqiang tried again to reassure global markets about China’s economy and the government’s plans for it. “We will continue to pursue market-oriented reform” he said at the closing of the National People’s Congress. He expressed confidence that growth targets would be met and even though rising debts and potential bad loans are problematic the situation is manageable.

*BoJ boss Kuroda told parliament today that there is theoretically more room to cut rates, noting the ECB moves in that regard. Not that he is planning to, but Kuroda agreed with a questioner at the hearing that a rate of -0.50% is theoretically possible.

*Qatar’s energy minister said earlier today that OPEC and non-OPEC countries will meet on April 17; the idea is to come to a broader agreement on freezing oil output. Iran for one says they are not interested in complying with any agreement until it reaches its pre-sanctions market share level.

*The January reading of the UK Unemployment Rate is 5.1%, steady at a decade low level for three months running. In February the net change in the number of jobless claims was a decline of 18.0k, twice the forecast drop.

*UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is set to present his 2016 budget speech to the House of Commons at 7:30am CDT.

*US mortgage applications were down 3.3% in the week ended March 11, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications for Purchases were up 0.3% on the week, but those for Refinancings were down 5.6%.

*The February reading of the Consumer Price Index is due out at 7:30am CDT. Headline CPI is expected to be -0.2% on the month and +0.9% on the year; the estimates for the Core CPI are +0.2% and +2.2%, respectively. Also due out at 7:30am is the February reading of Housing Starts. The annualized rate for Starts is expected to be 1150k units, which would be up 4.6% from the month before; the estimate for Building Permits is 1200k units on an annualized basis, or down 0.2% on the month. The February readings of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due out at 8:15am CDT. Production is forecast to be -0.3% month on month and the estimate for Utilization is 76.9%, or two tenths lower than the month before.

*The weekly report on energy inventories is due out at 9:30am CDT. Stocks of Crude Oil are forecast to increase 3.2 million barrels, Gasoline inventories are expected to decline 2.2 million and the estimate for Distillates is -300k.

*The FOMC policy statement and the Fed’s economic projections, including the Dot Plot, are due out at 1:00pm CDT. Chairperson Yellen will hold a press conference, beginning at 1:30pm CDT.

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