CRUDE OIL INVENTORY/’000 bbls (Week Ended 2/6/15)
Current: 417,928
Actual Build/(Withdrawal): 4,868
Economist Average Estimate: 3,613
Previous: 413,060
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ANALYST COMMENTARY
BMO Capital Markets
We believe this week’s data is negative for crude prices given the crude build once again exceeded expectations and pushed inventories to a new record high. We expect inventories to continue to build at a rapid pace over the next three months as U.S. production continues to grow and U.S. refiners move into the turnaround season.
KLR Group
Composite inventories increased ~3.6 Mmbbls, versus the consensus estimate of a ~2.7 Mmbbls build w/w. API reported a ~3.7 Mmbbls increase in composite inventories w/w. Crude oil supplies grew ~4.9 Mmbbls, while consensus expected a ~3.8 Mmbbls increase and API estimated a build of ~1.6 Mmbbls. Gasoline stocks increased ~2 Mmbbls versus the consensus estimate of a ~0.2 Mmbbls build w/w. API reported a build in gasoline stocks of ~1.6 Mmbbls w/w. Distillate inventories decreased ~3.3 Mmbbls w/w, versus the consensus estimate of a ~1.3 Mmbbls draw. API reported an increase in distillate stocks of approximately 0.5 Mmbbls.
Cushing stocks increased ~1.2 Mmbbls w/w to ~42.6 Mmbbls, while API reported a build of ~1 Mmbbls. Midwest stocks grew ~1.3 Mmbbls to ~124.2 Mmbbls (~87% of capacity). WTI decreased ~$0.45 after the report release and is currently down ~$0.95 today at ~$49.10.
Wells Fargo Securities
Refined product exports averaged 3,590 Mboe/d over the last four weeks versus 3,583 a year ago and the 5-yr average of 2,674 Mboe/d. Last week’s U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7,286 Mboe/d and declined by 101 Mboe/d versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 8,221 Mboe/d. Mogas imports averaged 462 Mboe/d and declined by 160 Mboe/d versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 787 Mboe/d. Distillate imports averaged 269 Mboe/d and decreased by 144 Mboe/d versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 290 Mboe/d.
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