CRUDE OIL INVENTORY/’000 bbls (Week Ended 11/28/14)
Current: 379,335
Actual Build/(Withdrawal): (3,689)
Economist Average Estimate: 950
Previous: 383,024
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UBS Investment Research Note (12.3.14)
Crude stocks draw as refinery runs rise and imports dip: Crude stocks fell 3.7 MMBbls last week (bullish vs. consensus expectations of a 1.0 MMBbl build) to 379.3 MMBbls as refinery runs increased 0.4 MMBbld to 16.4 MMBbld and imports fell 0.2 MMBbld to 7.3 MMBbld. Crude production ticked up to 9.1 MMBbld. Meanwhile, Cushing inventories also drew 0.7 MMBbls WoW to 23.9 MMBbls. Total crude stocks remain close to top of their 5-year range.
Refinery utilization surges while weekly demand declines: Refinery utilization rose 2.1pp to 93.4% (vs. consensus of +0.5pp rise) of operable capacity. Total product demand declined 0.7 MMBbld to 19.8 MMBbld on lower distillate and propane/propylene use. 4-week average demand is -0.6% YoY.
Gasoline stocks build as imports rise: Gasoline stocks built 2.1 MMBbls (vs. consensus expectations of a 0.9 MMBbl build) to 208.6 MMBbls as imports rose 0.3 MMBbld to 0.7 MMBbld while production fell 0.1 MMBbld to 9.6 MMBbld. Weekly demand rose 0.2 MMBbld to 9.4 MMBbld (4-week average demand is now +3.2% YoY). Gasoline stocks are now below their 5-year range.
Distillate stocks also rise on weaker demand Distillate stocks built 3 MMBbls (bearish vs. consensus of no change) to 116.2 MMBbls as weekly demand decreased 0.5 MMBbld to 3.6 MMBbld (4-week average demand is now -1.5% YoY). Distillate production rose 0.1 MMBbld to 5 MMBbld while imports inched down to 0.1 MMBbld. Distillate stocks remain close to the low end of their 5-year range.
Wells Fargo Securities Note (12.3.14)
Summary. The global oversupply that has cratered oil prices is nowhere to be seen in the weekly U.S. inventory report. U.S. inventories remain well behaved with a net draw for the week as crude and other products declined while gasoline and distillate both increased. Despite the builds in gasoline and distillate, inventories of both of these product categories remain near 10-year lows. This comes in spite of refining throughputs that are running at over 3% higher than a year ago and setting multi-decade highs. Crude and product prices appear to be generally unaffected by this week’s DOE report.
DOE Inventory Data. Excluding barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the EIA reported U.S. crude inventories of 379,335 Mboe, which declined by 3,689 Mboe versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 358,387 Mboe. Cushing inventories decreased by 694 Mboe to 23,885 Mboe versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 36,591 Mboe. Total MoGas inventories of 208,567 Mboe increased by 2,143 Mboe versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 211,726 Mboe. Distillate inventories of 116,174 Mboe increased by 3,028 Mboe versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 138,167 Mboe.
U.S. Crude and Refined Product Demand. Implied crude demand of 16,913 Mboed increased by 641 Mboed versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 14,775 Mboed. Implied MoGas demand of 9,770 Mboed increased by 171 Mboed versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 9,070 Mboed. Implied distillate demand of 4,717 Mboed decreased by 546 Mboed versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 4,471 Mboed.
U.S. Refined Product and Crude Oil Production. Crude oil production averaged 9,083 Mboed last week and increased by 6 Mboed versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 6,362 Mboed. Last week’s gasoline production averaged 9,593 Mboed and decreased by 48 Mboed versus the previous week and compared to the five-year average of 9,036 Mboed. Distillate production averaged 5,028 Mboed last week and increased by 128 Mboed versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 4,599 Mboed.
Refining Utilization and Throughputs. Refinery utilization averaged 93.4% and was up compared to 91.5% in the prior week and exceeded the five-year average of 86.0%. U.S. refinery inputs of 16,356 Mboed increased by 399 Mboed versus the previous week and exceeded the five-year average of 14,812 Mboed. Total products supplied averaged 19,964 Mboed and increased by 56 Mboed versus the prior week and exceeded the five-year average of 19,100 Mboed.
Imports and Exports. Refined product exports averaged 3,404 Mboed over the last four weeks versus 3,607 Mboed in the prior four weeks and the 5-yr average of 2,589 Mboed. Last week’s U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7,303 Mboed and decreased by 170 Mboed versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 8,389 Mboed. Mogas imports averaged 724 Mboed and increased by 284 Mboed versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 726 Mboed. Distillate imports averaged 122 Mboed and declined by 6 Mboed versus the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 153 Mboed.
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