Total EERC down 13

EnerCom has released its latest Effective Rig Count, examining the state of drilling activity correlated to production in major shale basins.

The Effective Rig Count fell this month, dropping by 13 to 2,747 effective rigs. Both efficiencies and reported rig counts fell in September, reinforcing the decline in the EERC.

The past two months have seen a decline in the overall Effective Rig Count, as the reported number of rigs active in the major U.S. shale basins has fallen somewhat. Overall efficiencies have been nearly flat for much of 2018, as declining Permian efficiencies counteract the improvements seen in other basins.

Effective Rig Count Falls on Diminished Efficiency

Source: EnerCom Analytics

Permian efficiency falling since January

There are currently 1,423 Effective Rigs in the Permian, compared to a reported rig count of 485, meaning rigs in the basin are currently yielding 2.93 times more production than rigs in the basin in January 2014. While this is a significant improvement, it is well below the peak seen in the basin in mid-2016. The recent decline in Permian efficiency is due to the pipeline constraints the basin is suffering, as takeaway capacity has become scarce. While efficiencies may eventually begin to rise again, they are not likely to increase significantly until after new pipelines enter service.

Effective Rig Count Falls on Diminished Efficiency

Source: EnerCom Analytics

Efficiencies in all other basins are improving, as technologies and techniques are continually refined.

Effective Rig Count Falls on Diminished Efficiency

Source: EnerCom Analytics

Haynesville growth slowing

Oil production growth continues to be dominated by the Permian, as the EIA predicts the basin will add 53 MBOPD from October to November. The Bakken and Eagle Ford are also expected to add significant volumes of oil, with production increasing by a combined 28 MBOPD.

Growth in gas production has slowed slightly, with the U.S. adding an estimated 957 MMcf/d from October to November, compared to more than 1 Bcf/d earlier this year. The reason for this decline is primarily the Haynesville, as growth in the basin has slowed. While the Haynesville added about 300 MMcf/d earlier this year, the EIA predicts it will add only 101 MMcf/d in the coming month. The most significant growth in gas production will come in the Appalachian, as usual.

Effective Rig Count Falls on Diminished Efficiency

Source: EnerCom Analytics

DUCs on the rise in Permian, Anadarko and Eagle Ford

Companies may be deferring completions in the Permian until takeaway returns, as the basin’s DUC count is booming. There are an estimated 3,722 drilled uncompleted wells in the Permian, up 194 from last month. Only two other regions saw increases in DUC count this month, the Anadarko and Eagle Ford, adding a combined 49 DUCs. All other basins saw completions outpace drilling, with the Appalachian, Bakken, Haynesville and Niobrara completing 51 wells more than they drilled.

Effective Rig Count Falls on Diminished Efficiency

Source: EIA

 


Legal Notice