In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts total U.S. crude oil production will average 9.2 million BOPD for all of 2017 and 10.0 million BOPD in 2018, which would mark the nation’s highest annual average production—surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million BOPD set in 1970.

Crude oil

  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in November, up 360,000 b/d from the October level. Most of the increase was in the Gulf of Mexico, where production was 290,000 b/d higher than in October. Higher production in November reflected oil production platforms returning to operation after being shut in response to Hurricane Nate.
  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63 per barrel (b) in November, an increase of $5/b from the average in October. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $57/b in 2018, up from an average of $54/b in 2017.
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in 2018. After averaging $2/b lower than Brent prices through the first eight months of 2017, WTI prices averaged $6/b lower than Brent prices from September through November.
  • NYMEX WTI contract values for March 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending December 7, 2017, suggest that a range of $48/b to $68/b encompasses the market expectation for March WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

NatGas for power generation drops to 32% in 2017, falling from 34% in 2016 – from higher fuel costs

The EIA said it expects the share of total U.S. utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas will average about 32% in 2017, down from 34% in 2016 as a result of higher natural gas fuel costs.

EIA said it projects the 2017 share of generation from coal will average 30%, about the same as last year. The forecast 2018 generation shares for natural gas and coal remain relatively unchanged from 2017, averaging 32% and 31%, respectively.

Forecast highlights

EIA Believes 2018 Will See the Highest U.S. Crude Production Since 1970

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Price Summary, Dec. 2017

Natural gas

  • U.S. dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 0.7 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. EIA forecasts that natural gas production in 2018 will be 6.1 Bcf/d higher than the 2017 level.
  • In November, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $3.01 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up nearly 14 cents/MMBtu from October. Expected growth in natural gas exports and domestic natural gas consumption in 2018 contribute to an increase in EIA’s forecast Henry Hub natural gas spot price from an annual average of $3.01/MMBtu in 2017 to $3.12/MMBtu in 2018. NYMEX contract values for March 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending December 7, 2017, suggest that a range of $1.98/MMBtu to $4.27/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for March Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
EIA Believes 2018 Will See the Highest U.S. Crude Production Since 1970

Natural Gas Henry Hub Pricing Five Year Chart


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