(Oil & Gas 360) – Ending Terrorizing, Now Including Ending Its Funding, Needs Much More, Oil & Natural Gas, The Best When-Needed/Where-Needed Energy Sources.
The rulers Of Iran, immensely prepared to battle to rule, needing intense effort to bring peace has us heading UP to a profitable, multi-year, oil & nat. gas Drilling Boom. Expectations, oil prices (Figure A) and nat. gas prices extra depressed through 2025, heading into 2026, had stock markets up setting new highs. Winter finally arriving and inventory low, including Over There (Figure B), moved oil prices up. Then the Operation Epic Fury effort, to end the effort of those ruling Iran to rule even more (and surprisingly well weaponized to do so), joined by efforts to eliminate their revenue but have far more peacefully provided has oil prices up confirming its high value. So high confirms a multi-year Drilling Boom is where we head to overcome firming supply/demand trends that were hidden.
2020 Coronavirus shutins/down and oil price war jumped oil inventory and collapsed revenue. But demand growth into oil & natural gas supply Climate-Fear and War-For-Peace short needs another Drilling Boom. Crude oil inventory running out of room had several April 2020 oil trades down near -$40 per barrel. The virus dropping demand jumped Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) inventory (except Canada & U.S.) to new highs (Figure B, bold dash). Expectations and crude oil prices low joined by Climate Change to stimulating had inventory low (red line) before Epic Fury and ending evil being funded has focus resume: many more kept Summer & Winter comfortable, plus enjoying AI and Freer Trade powering more movement, growth and prosperity.
Energy Outlook
World pent-up demand extra high (hidden by fear, uncertainty + now, supply/disrupted) needs more oil & natural gas fueling. U.S. government shutdown + Holiday time off minimizing but Change to 1) Winter stimulating and 2) much more damaged to be rebuilt plus 3) supply temporarily disrupted has much fuel needed to fuel peaceful growth. Supply/demand trends and poor understanding keep us predicting conventional energy heads UP for years. While fear dropped everything early April 2025, OSX, the Oil Service Index, the top performer since, highlights awareness increasing that 1) pent-up demand high, 2) fairer/free-er trade plus 3) major war-recovery efforts have much more fossil fuel needed to fuel many more UP.
Oil futures contracts expiring today have provided extra high prices to decline from.
More needing to be done is/will power UP. More major damage needing repair and rebuilding joined by efforts to defund terrorists have increased the pile of much-more-to-be-done. While fear still pressures, major stock markets rebounding to new record highs supports our outlook: problems should/
must/will be fixed. Economic efforts joining battle efforts support our prediction: Middle East peace is soon achieved that will be like Post-War-Peace with Germany and Japan. We see Tariffs as an improving-lives tactic, not a get-even policy. That, and policies greatly hindering but having/needing more to be done have us predict consensus-beating World growth and fossil energy fueling it rising very much.
While fear continues to be a very used tool for rulers pursuing regulations/rules/laws and spending claimed to be good, we predict overcoming the much that has kept billions from joining in and moving UP, needing more and better fossil-fuel fueling. While using fear and being fearful continues to be very high, progress in preventing/treating disease plus normal, well overdue Climate Change to cold & hot stimulating and much more war damage has much more to be done. Damage and electricity cost surges, from aggressive wind and solar supply shortcomings highlight energy supply importance that includes natural gas too. Much taken for granted (with many still not understanding how and why things work) and ending-War efforts has high-cost energy-shortages happening. However, awareness is increasing of the opportunity and need to make life better for more by pursuing peaceful, safer, healthier interaction, freer/fairer trade and improving education. We conclude addressing problems in the hands of many worldwide beats’ elite few rulership. Turmoil confirms much more pent-up demand: much fossil-fuel UP.
The U.S. easiest to watch is providing much high-value insight (despite silencing efforts persisting) funding UP. Incredible advances continue to be evident, helped by prices changing (Figure A) in Free Markets directing activity. A big difference from rulers/soldiers/terrorists killing, maiming, and destroying. While fear/anger persists, achieving continues, including much technology-driven work accomplished evident in NASDAQ & S&P 500 surges from April 2025 & 2026’s drops to higher record highs. While some workers are/will not be needed because of advances, others are/will be needed and be able to produce more prosperity and not from home, especially U.S. oil and natural gas.
Poor understanding of how things work and why has us looking to electricity to show more oil and natural gas Drilling-Boom needed. The big Cuba, Portugal/Spain electric blackouts highlight electricity a major prosperity/safety key for living better and longer. Very high value provided when and where needed is much in evidence, which natural-gas-fueled electric generating plants do best. Solar and wind are low-value “When and Where Available” sources, popularized by fear CO2 must be eliminated. But electric vehicles, plus being cooled & warmed faster require more electricity, reliable and faster responding. The Climate-good-intentioned have much more to learn about keeping 1) the grid stable and 2) people healthy flourishing, against the sun going down, no wind, car batteries struggle charging with more of them + extra cold/extra hot and replenishing/increasing fossil fuel supply short keeping inflation too high. Record weekly natural gas inventory changes highlight more needed.
Energy’s base up but now even more needed to continue fueling record-high, major stock markets higher drive our predicting years of heading UP. We rate natural gas and crude oil E&P, Drilling & Oil Service Overweight Strong Buy, and Oil-Refining BUY.
Our natural gas index dropped to its many years 234.06 low 3/18/20. Tariff fear had it drop to 955.59 4/8/25. 1,351.85 today is up 304.52 year-to-date (YTD, 29.1%), up 41.5% from 4/8 and 6.872 times its 10/1/97 value, vs the S&P500 up 7.545 times its 10/1/97 value.
(*) Energy Direction’s Natural Gas Index is the sum of the closing price of APA Corp. (NYSE: APA-40.73) times 2, and EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG-140.57) times 4, on 4/3/06, Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN-51.37 times 3.00507 replaced Burlington Resources times 2. On 8/9/19, the change in Coterra Energy (CTRA-35.91), Equitable Corp (EQT-58.70) and Pioneer replaced Anadarko Petroleum and replaced Noble Energy since 10/5/20. 5/2/24 Antero (AR-39.26) replaced Pioneer to calculate the change in the new three. 1351.85 now up 1117.79 from its 234.93 3/18/2020 low but down 17.13 from its 6/7/22 high, needs more. The Oil Service Index still way low reflects big, competitive pricing pressure and many believing little will be needed. We conclude fueling hundreds of millions more UP, including U.S. minorities and low educated Participating requires years-more Drilling-Boom/Profitable-Investing UP.
What oil fuels having extra high value and too little available has prices often exceed $90 per barrel this century. $90+ funded much research and a wildly successful Canada & U.S. drilling boom surging production. Climate fear and coronavirus attack helping many believe oil has no future knocked it down to where it was in 1999, when Russia joined OPEC to manage. We credit its Ukraine invasion to it believing Ukraine corruption was stealing too much of its exports. Ending Iran’s decades-long war also increased uncertainty but will, oil demand.
Natural gas trended UP 4 times since Crash-2008 but record production, weather extra mild and low expectations dominating, still has prices depressed. However, gas is more about producing, being comfortable and healthy. Sustained gas-price upside surprise is set up by years of infrastructure decisions. We predict War recovery + Climate stimulating soon has more learning U.S. supply fallen short. Especially now with Over There needing much more. Consensus-beating demand growth is where we head.
By oilandgas360.com contributor Michael Smolinksi with Energy Directions
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Oil & Gas 360. Please consult with a professional before making any decisions based on the information provided here. The information presented in this article is not intended as financial advice and not to be deemed an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Contact Energy Directions for the full report. The material herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Some information is opinion and should not be construed as a statement of fact.
