(Oil & Gas 360) – United States Energy Price Outlook, Natural Gas Outlook, Supply/Demand Assessment, March 2026
More fear continues providing great buy-low opportunity. The word “Tariff” creating great fear has been joined by “War” and “Recession” fear that are increasing uncertainty. The S&P 500 had a 16.4% gain in 2025. It was up 0.5% year to date (YTD) before Operation Epic Fury launched. Fear added has it down but only 5.4% YTD. The NYSE ARCA Natural Gas Index (XNG) had a 9.4% gain in 2025 and was up 18.4 % before Epic Fury launched. Epic Fury has it now up 29% YTD and that despite the Henry Hub price of natural gas the same now, around $3, as it was mid-January. Mild temperatures still dominating, both Winter and Summer, are still providing great buy low opportunity as the effort to bring peace to the Middle East needs more workers and growth to restore capabilities to fuel and provide better lives for the whole world.
Operation Epic Fury a very powerful treatment to end the Cancer of Terrorists terrorizing has side effects worth incurring. Epic Fury battling suddenly underway has jumped the cost of oil, and natural gas Over There. Seeing the outcome: ending decades of terrorizing, worth the side effects needing to be lived through has us predict much needed, great success. The enormous magnitude and length of the Iranian Rulers response highlights the need to now end their decades of effort and success, killing/maiming and destroying. The much learned that is now killing cancer encourages our assessment, much learned and capabilities developed have deathly-terrorizing ending.
Eliminate fossil fuels still too popular keeps us predicting more episodes of those energy bearish caught short by Climate and pent-up demand stimulating. High CO2 coincides with warming; it isn’t the cause of Climate Change. The notion still too popular, “Mankind’s CO2 emissions are so very dangerous” encouraged by extensive coverage of storms, weather extremes, damage continues discouraging/hindering conventional fossil-fuel supply investment. Opposition in California, to a restored offshore pipeline fueling it, instead of higher cost and lower-value-to-it foreign supply, is the latest example. Nevertheless, more encompassing research shows CO2 fear is false. Temperatures rise in the Spring despite all the green reducing CO2 content, increasing oxygen content. We predict & see wisdom winning: handle Climate damage before and when it occurs. Dictating $Trillions to cut CO2 required believing 1) new Climate Change can’t be lived through and, 2) despite inability to Change The Climate (except by Elijah), “Investing” $Trillions will make it Not Change.
Electricity high value but still poorly understood/taken for granted highlights more needed, + much more natural-gas generated. More learning, how things work and why, are and will be driving energy stock prices/value UP much more. More are learning high-cost, new-infrastructure Climate-Fear needed makes no sense. Plus, the excitement and potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) prospering much more requires much more electricity and rapidly so. Nuclear not fast, natural gas fueled powerplants quickest in service, most economical and the U.S. resource base huge give the U.S. the major advantage, yet to be appreciated. Conventional energy the only economical way to prosper many more keeps us predicting better is the future: many more Participate enjoying Doing/Being/Having More, with 1) tariff efforts increasing trade, 2) production growth slow has natural gas & oil rebound to Up a long time, 3) man-made Climate Change is a myth and 4) more learning: safe, “Thou-Shalt-Not-Murder, Steal” lives need ruling-elite power reduced/removed. With the effort against Iran a positive example. Mild persisting still keeping expectations low keeps us rating crude-oil, oil-focused E&P, Drilling & Oil Service & supplying Natural Gas Overweight Strong Buy, Oil Refining BUY.
This price 2/17/21, a new $23.61 record high confirmed firming and now $30.72 1/23/26. But rapid production growth, and Winters delightfully mild pressured down to a $1.24 low March 2024, and extra mild to a lower $1.23 November 2024 low. That low was followed by the jump to $10.07 1/17/25.
Climate Change still minimizing, has inventory high. That and economic growth fear has this price, while up, languishing. But gas inventory showing potential demand record high is why we see the need to drill much more and predict $7+ sustained by the high value of all natural gas fuels.
2020’s fast collapse to -$37.63 4/20/20, which we omit, reflects The Climate mild, virus shutting in/down + oil price war production increase filling inventory to “Where do we put it?” fear. Many more living better lives, the Tariff tactic being used plus ending War has now changed to a “Where do we get it?” future of pent-up demand stimulated by recovery and Worldwide growth. Ending-war consequences plus mankind-enhancing-greatly-activity enjoyed has Drilling Boom needed.
By oilandgas360.com contributor Michael Smolinksi with Energy Directions
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