October 26, 2019 - 10:05 PM EDT
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Growing Chance of of Halloween Slush

Oct. 26--Minneapolis Dayplanner For Sunday After a breezy, but beautiful Saturday across the state, Sunday will be much cooler post cold front. Temps will only warm into the 40s with more clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers. Feels like temps could hold into the 30s much of the days, which will feel more like NovemBRR. __________________________________________________________________________ Sunday Weather Outlook High temps on Sunday will only warm into the 30s and 40s across the state, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average. There will also be more clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers through the early afternoon. ______________________________________________________________________________ COLD (And Snowy?) Weather Outlook for Halloween - Thursday, October 31st Halloween is still a few days away, but weather conditions could get pretty interesting by then. Weather models are hinting at a fairly impressive storm system developing somewhere across the Upper Midwest. At present, weather models keep the worst of the storm southeast of the Twin Cities, including the potential of plowable snow in far southeastern MN. Again, it's still early enough and there will likely be changes in the path and intensity. In the meantime, prepare for a colder than normal Halloween, so trick or treaters will likely need an extra layer as feels like temps dip into the 20s through the evening. Stay tuned! ________________________________________________________________________ 11th Wettest October on Record at MSP (So Far Through October 26th) Active weather conditions across the Upper Midwest this October has kept the region wetter than average once again this month. Note that the Twin Cities has seen a little more than 4" of precipitation, which makes it the 11th wettest October on record. According to the latest GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European Model), we could pick up another 0.10" to 0.40" of precipitation through Thursday, October 31st, which could help bump us up into the top 10 wettest Octobers on record. _________________________________________________________________________ A Fairly Wet October So Far (Through October 26th) October 2019 has been fairly wet across much of the Upper Midwest with several locations several inches above average through October 26th. Interestingly, Rochester is already reached its wettest YEAR on record, but is also sitting at its 4th wettest October on record with 5.71" of rain, nearly 4" above average! _____________________________________________________________________________ 4th Wettest Year on Record at MSP (So Far Through October 22nd) Thanks to a wet October, MSP has now bumped up into the 4th wettest YEAR on record through October 26th! Interestingly, we are only 1.26" away from the top spot of 40.32" set in 2016 and we still have nearly 67 days left of 2019!! At this point, I'd be shocked if we didn't break or even shatter that record over the next couple of months. Stay tuned... ____________________________________________________________________________ It's Been a Wet 2019 So Far Through October 22nd The numbers below are quite impressive to say the least. Note that every climate reporting station listed below is above average precipitation for 2019. Incredibly, MSP is nearly a foot above average precipitation so far through October 26th, while Rochester is almost 2 feet above average precipitation so far this year. Unreal! By the way, Rochester is already more than 7" above its wettest year ever recorded 43.94" set in 1990 and there is still 67 days left of 2019! ____________________________________________________________________________ Weather Outlook AM Monday to AM Tuesday

Weather models are suggesting a brief light snow chance across parts of far southeastern Minnesota Monday night into Tuesday. At this point, there could be some shovelable amounts across parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Stay tuned.

__________________________________________________________________________ Twin Cities 7 Day

Here's a look at the 7 day forecast for the Twin Cities, which looks quite a bit colder this week with high temps only warming into the 30s and lows dipping into the 20s. These types of temperatures are more reminiscent of the 2nd half of November. _____________________________________________________________________________ Only 1 Week Until We "Fall Back" - Time Change... Believe it or not, we are only 1 weeks away until the time change. This year it will occur on Sunday, November 3rd. The good news is that we will have more daylight in the morning, but less light when you get home from work and school. The sunset in the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 2nd is at 6PM, but on Sunday, November 3rd, it will be around 5PM. By the way, the earliest sunset in the metro is 4:31PM during the first couple of weeks of December. ________________________________________________________________________ Fall Colors Going Fast... Fall colors conitnue across the state, but there are quite a few places past peak as we approach the last weekend of October. Take a look at the picture from the Twin Cities on Saturday! ___________________________________________________________________________ MN Fall Color Update According to the MN DNR, the latest fall color report suggests that much of the state is now past peak. Strong winds earlier this week helped to strip quite a few trees of their leaves as well, so things are starting to look a little more bare out there. _______________________________________________________________________ Typical Peak Color Across the State According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities see peak color around mid October. It's hard to believe, but the fall color is almost gone.

_____________________________________________________________________________ How Does Weather Effect the Leaves?

Did you know that weather has a big impact on the fall color? Weather conditions that are either too wet or too dry can lead to premature displays or even dull, muted color displays. The best weather would be a warm, wet summer that gives way to sunny, cool fall days. Read more below:

______________________________________________________________________________ Minnesota Crop Progress Condition - October 21st

"Eighty-nine percent of the corn crop was mature, 18 days behind last year and 10 days behind normal. Corn harvested for grain reached 11 percent, 17 days behind last year and 13 days behind the average. Corn harvested for silage reached 90 percent this week, 12 days behind average. Corn condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, a slight improvement from the previous week. Nearly all soybeans have dropped their leaves, 6 days behind normal. Forty-two percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, 2 weeks behind average. Soybean condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, remaining steady when compared to the previous week." See more from the USDA HERE: ________________________________________________________________________ Monday Morning Freeze

The MSP Airport dropped to 32F on Friday, October 24th, which was the first official frost of the season. It was even colder on Saturday morning and the Twin Cities dipped into the 20s for the first time since April 14th, nearly 6 months ago. The forecast calls for a string of low temps in the 20s for much of the week ahead, which will be the first time we've had consecutive overnight lows in the 20s (or colder) since March, nearly 7 months ago. Sunday night and Monday morning will be our first night back in the 20s, but the coldest mornings come on Wednesday and Thursday as lows dip into the teens and lower 20s across much of the state. ____________________________________________________________________________ "Phenology: October 22nd, 2019" If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week: ""This week, John considers leaf color of a variety of trees and reminds us to watch for juncos, fox sparrows and snow buntings among other things! " See more from KAXE.org HERE: __________________________________________________________________________ Points of Tropical Origin: October 21st - 31st

Tropical activity through the end of October is still somewhat active, ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks. ____________________________________________________________________ Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season." Note how the hurricane activity drops off as we head into the end of October and into November. The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends of November 30th. ________________________________________________________________________ 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended precipiation outlook from November 3rd to th3 9th, keeps drier conditions in place across much of the the Central US. However, it could be a little wetter across parts of the Upper Midwest, especially from Montana to the Great Lakes, including the northern half of Minnesota. It could also be cold enough for some snow! Stay tuned. ____________________________________________________________________________ 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook from November 3rd to the 9th keeps much of the northern part of the nation colder than average, especially across the Upper Midwest and the High Plains. Note that average highs in the Twin Cities at that time are typically in the mid/upper 40s.

________________________________________________________________________

Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the last few days of October and into the first week of November. It certainly looks chilly with highs only warming into the 30s and 40s, which will be below average by quite a margin. Models are hinting at a 'slight' warmup as we approach the first weekend of November, where highs could near 50F once again.

________________________________________________________________________ Growing Chance of of Halloween Slush By Paul Douglas

We don't know what we can't know. The future is largely unknowable. I'm just being brutally honest.

Who will win the 2020 presidential election? Polls give you a snapshot of voter sentiment today, but so what? Disclosures, revelations, investigations. Nobody know where we'll be in November, 2020.

NFL predictions? Statistics and analytics aside, who will be injured and unable to play?

The winter outlook is much the same. No El Nino or La Nina to flavor patterns, but predicting how much snow will fall by April is an exercise in futility.

There is some forecasting skill out to 2 weeks or so, and models continue to hint at a slushy accumulation here on Halloween, with plowable amounts for much of Wisconsin.

In the meantime a cooler front puffs into town today on northwest winds. Expect a dry sky Monday with a coating of flakes over southeastern Minnesota Monday night. Daytime highs hold in the 30s later this week.

I'm not taking any chances. I (reluctantly) installed my driveway stakes yesterday. _____________________________________________

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 44.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy cold. Frost/Freeze like by morning. Winds: WNW 5-10. Low: 30.

MONDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Winds: W 5-10. High: 41.

TUESDAY: Peeks of sun, still chilly. Winds: NW 7-12. Low: 28. High: 42.

WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sunshine. Dry roads. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 25. High: 40.

THURSDAY: Light snow develop. Slick PM roads? Winds: NE 8-13. Low: 29. High: 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Better travel. Winds: NW 10-20. Low: 27 High: 39.

SATURDAY: Cloud, late flakes? Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 42. ______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History October 27th

1943: Residents would describe this event as 'one of the worst fogs in the Twin Cities in memory'. A very dense area of fog blanketed the area. In the thickest fog, street lights could not be seen 25 yards away. Drivers refused to cross unmarked railroad crossings and traffic was brought to a standstill.

1931: An intense area of low pressure moves into the Duluth area. The barometer falls to 29.02 inches. _________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis October 27th

Average High: 53F (Record: 74F set in 1948) Average Low: 36F (Record: 13F set in 1997)

Record Rainfall: 2.22" set in 1971 Record Snowfall: 2.6" set in 1919 _________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis October 27th

Sunrise: 7:44am Sunset: 6:09pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours 24 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes 53 seconds Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hours 19 minutes __________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for October 27th at Midnight 0.1 Day Since New Moon

___________________________________ What's in the Night Sky?

"The planet Uranus, 7th planet outward from the sun, comes closest to Earth for 2019 on October 27 at 21 UTC. Hours later, on opposition on October 28 at 8 UTC, Uranus will reach its yearly opposition, when it is most directly opposite the sun as viewed from Earth. In other words, our planet Earth in its smaller, faster orbit is swinging in between the sun and Uranus around now. We’re now squarely in the middle of the best time of year to see this planet. Why? Because Uranus is now opposite the sun in our sky, rising in the east as the sun sets in the west, generally at its closest for the year. Because Uranus is opposite the sun, it climbs highest up for the night at midnight (midway between sunset and sunrise) and sets in the west at sunrise. Not only does Uranus stay out all night long, but this world is now shining at its brightest best in our sky. Even at its brightest, Uranus is still quite faint. It is barely perceptible as a dim speck of light to the unaided eye. At a magnitude of 5.67, Uranus shines no more brilliantly than the sky’s faintest stars. Given a dark sky free of light pollution, you might see Uranus with the eye alone – but only if you know right where to look for this distant world in front of the rather faint constellation, Aries. Uranus is in the southwest corner of Aries, hovering close to the Pisces border."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________ Average Tornadoes By State in October According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in October is quite a bit less across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. Note that Minnesota typically sees only 1 tornado, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). By the way, the last October tornado in Minnesota was on October 11th, 2013 in Traverse county located in western MN. That tornado produced EF1 damage near Charlesville, MN. ______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,575 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley. _______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through October 25th suggests that there have been a total of 1,575 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1277. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,819 tornadoes were reported. ________________________________________________________________________ Sunday Weather Outlook Temperatures across the nation on Sunday will range quite a bit from west to east. Note that temps across the East Coast will be nearly +10F above average with record heat possible across parts of southern Florida over the next several days. Meanwhile, folks in the North Central part of the country and in the Rockies will be well below average! In fact, areas from Billings to Salt Lake and Denver will be nearly -20F to -30F below average as a storm system sags south through the region. _____________________________________________________________ Record Florida Heat High temps on Sunday will be near record levels across parts of Florida on Sunday. Some spots along the Space Coast could warm to near 90F on Sunday, while Key West and Miami could see record to near record heat much of next week. ________________________________________________________________________ National Weather Outlook The next several days looks active across much of the nation with one storm lifting quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes with gusty winds and heavy rain. Meanwhile, another snow event is unfolding across the Rockies with several inches of snow likely in the high elevations and even some accumulation in the Plains. ______________________________________________________________________________ Heavy Ranifall Potential The 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, shows more heavy precipitation across the eastern half of the country with several inches possible. There will also be areas of heavy snow in the Central Rockies through early next week. ______________________________________________________________________ Potentially Historic California Wind Event And Snow For The Rockies A potentially historic long duration wind event will impact parts of central California tomorrow and Monday. The North Bay area is under the Storm Prediction Center’s highest fire level risk, which is Extreme. Snow and cold air invades the Rockies and Central US.

Latest Fire Updates from California. Several fires continue to burn in the Western US, and in particular California. The Los Angeles area will see some relief today as the Santa Ana winds diminish. Firefighters battling the Kincade fire have brought containment now up to 10%. However, the Santa Ana winds will return tomorrow and into Monday in the LA area. Further north, a significant, long duration, wind event is expected for the Bay Area for Sunday and Monday. Extremely strong winds will be developing as the next system moves in. Additional evacuations for the fires may still be necessary as the winds increase Sunday.

Extreme Fire Danger On Sunday, the North Bay area is under the Storm Prediction Center’s highest fire level risk, which is Extreme. The other areas of the Sacramento Valley are under critical levels.

High Winds. As the winds ramp up tonight, it winds will generally be coming out of the north to northeast at 25 to 40 mph. Gusts could be up into the 60 mph range and even higher in the near the canyons and the highest peaks. The strongest winds are forecast to be over the North Bay area. High winds will continue until Monday.

High Wind Warnings and Watches Warnings will be in effect from tonight until Monday morning. During this time, it is possible that there will be power outages from downed power lines and downed trees. Driving will be especially difficult for high profile vehicles. This will be a long duration event with potentially historic strong winds. The strongest winds will be occurring Saturday night and Sunday morning. These winds may also result in rapid fire growth.

Widespread Snow. A system will bring snow from Montana down into Wyoming and Colorado Saturday night and Sunday and Monday. Up to a foot of snow is possible in the higher elevations. Roads will be snow packed and icy and reduced visibility as the snow is falling. This snow will also be accompanied by a sharp drop in temperatures. High temperatures will drop as much as 40 degrees between Saturday and Sunday.

Winter Storm Headlines. Warnings and Advisories have been issued across the region in advance of heavy snow that could add up to 12" or more over the next couple of days.

Dramatic Temperature Change. Temperatures will drop rapidly as this system moves from the Rockies to the Central Plains. This cold air will then shift eastward into the Midwest for early next week. Temperatures will stay below average in the North Central US into the week ahead.

Gretchen Mishek

Praedictix __________________________________________________________________________

"Why don’t evergreens change color and drop their leaves every fall?"

"It’s autumn in the Northern Hemisphere – otherwise known as leaf-peeping season. Now is when people head outside to soak up the annual display of orange, red and yellow foliage painted across the landscape. But mixed among those bright, colorful patches are some trees that stay steadfastly green. Why do evergreen conifers sit out this blazing seasonal spectacle? Like so many other challenges, the problem of winter can be solved by trees in more than one way. As temperatures begin to dip, broad-leafed temperate trees – think maples and oaks – withdraw the green chlorophyll from their leaves. That’s the pigment that absorbs sunlight to power photosynthesis. Trees store the hard-won minerals, chiefly nitrogen, they’ve invested in chlorophyll in their wood for reuse in a future growing season. Yellows and oranges and reds are left fleetingly visible before the leaves drop for winter. Evergreen conifers – cone-bearing trees – retain their foliage year-round and have a different strategy for withstanding winter’s stresses."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

_____________________________________________________________________ "The Worst Day in Earth’s History Contains an Ominous Warning"

"One of the planet’s most dramatic extinctions was caused in part by ocean acidification, which has become a problem in our own era. The worst day in the history of life on Earth, so far, happened almost exactly 66 million years ago, when an asteroid roughly the size of Manhattan slammed into the Yucatán Peninsula. You may know the story. The asteroid--which arrived, probably, in June or July--immediately drilled a 20-mile hole into the planet’s surface, vaporizing bedrock and spewing it halfway to the moon. The planet shuddered with magnitude-12 earthquakes, loosing tsunamis across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of the ejected debris condensed in orbit and plunged back to Earth as searing spheres of molten glass, which torched the land and turned forests into firestorms. Other debris remained high in space, where it blocked the sun’s rays and began to chill the surface of the planet."

See more from The Atlantic HERE:

____________________________________________________________________________ "Predicting Old Man Winter and Energy Outlooks: Is it Anyone’s Guess?"

"Whether we have a strong winter impacts many things. From our road conditions driving to work, the extent of demand for home heating fuels, how our livestock will fair, and our ski season (including vital tourist revenue that results from ski season), predicting the degree of the intensity of the winter season can be important. But this year it looks like it could be anyone’s guess…some degree of certainty would be nice, as it can have a major impact on energy forecasts as well. For example, natural gas and propane demand."

See more from National Law Review HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________ Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX


Source: INACTIVE-Tribune Regional (October 26, 2019 - 10:05 PM EDT)

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