Global Hunter Securities reported implied gasoline demand for motor gasoline is 568.6 MBOPD more than the 5-year average for demand (including 2014). Based on information from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), implied demand for motor gasoline increased by 171 MBOPD to 9.425 MMBOPD, and is now 6.2% higher than levels exactly one year ago.
U.S. crude oil production increased very slightly on the week, by 6,000 BOPD, taking U.S. production to 9.08 MMBOPD. Gross crude oil imports were 170 MBOPD lower last week, at 7.3 MMBOPD, which reflected the stronger U.S. dollar, in GHS’ opinion.
Distillates demand was soft last week, at only 3.57 MMBOPD, as the winter’s potential demand for heating oil remains elusive at this point, although there are better chances for colder weather starting in the second half of December, according to the report.
Based on Department of Energy (DOE) estimates, Raymond James also saw this week’s petroleum inventories update as bullish, relative to consensus. The report said the “Big Three” petroleum inventories (crude, gasoline, distillates) rose by 1.5 MMBO, versus consensus estimates for a build of 3.9 MMBO.
Gasoline and distillate inventories were also up from consensus estimates. Gasoline was up by 2.1 MMBO according to the DOE, versus consensus expectations of 1.5 MMBO, and distillates were up 3.0 MMBO, versus the expected increase of 0.6 MMBO.
Of the “Big Three,” crude oil inventories were the only ones to fall below consensus estimates. The expectation was that crude inventories would increase by 1.8 MMBO, but they instead decreased by 3.7 MMBO.
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