From the Washington Post
For millions of ethnic Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan, Monday was a historic day. After a century of despair and neglect, they had the chance to vote for their own independence in a controversial referendum staged by the Kurdistan Regional Government — the body that holds sway over the predominantly Kurdish areas of northern Iraq. Official results are expected in the coming days, with a “yes” vote in favor of independence almost certain to win out.
But for everyone else in the region, this is where the problems begin. U.N. Secretary General António Guterres issued a statement on Monday lamenting the “potentially destabilizing effects” of the vote. The Iraqi government, as well as Turkey and Iran — nations on Iraqi Kurdistan’s borders with sizable Kurdish minorities of their own — have rejected the referendum. Kurdish officials insist the vote is nonbinding, and see it instead as a demonstration of the Kurdish will for self-determination and a pointed message to Baghdad.
But the Iraqi government sent a message of its own, announcing that it was conducting joint military exercises with Turkey near Iraqi Kurdish territory. Iran did the same along its borders and closed its airspace to flights coming in and out of Iraqi Kurdistan.
What was the referendum about?
KRG officials argue that this moment has been long overdue. Since the U.S.-led removal of the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the Iraqi Kurds have enjoyed a great degree of autonomy from Baghdad and, blessed with considerable oil resources, have been able to build up institutions of a potential future state. Kurdish peshmerga militia have fought on the front lines against the Islamic State, a struggle that has seen close security cooperation between their forces and the United States.
Kurdish politicians, in particular Masoud Barzani, the Kurdish regional president, now sense their moment is nigh amid the upheavals and conflicts roiling Iraq and Syria. And they see a government in Baghdad, led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, that has turned cold toward the Kurds and is barely able to protect its own people.
“Changes happened also about 100 years ago, and the Kurds were bystanders,” Bayan Sami Adbul Rahman, the KRG’s top representative in Washington, told me earlier this year, referring to the Kurds’ historic sense of dispossession as new states emerged out of the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. “We are not going to be bystanders again.”
A “yes” vote should kick-start a process of negotiations that would pave the way for an eventual separation from Iraq, Abdul Rahman said.
But some critics within the notoriously fractious KRG see the referendum as a bid by Barzani and his ruling party to consolidate power. Two rival prominent Iraqi Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Movement for Change, grumbled about the referendum but eventually got on board.
“Both parties see the referendum as a power grab by Barzani, whose grip has been weakened by a prolonged economic downturn triggered by the fall in global oil prices,” wrote Amberin Zaman in Al-Monitor.
Provocatively, the referendum was also staged in the disputed, oil-rich province of Kirkuk, where peshmerga fighters have held sway since 2014, when they rushed into the provincial capital to defend it from the Islamic State. The prospect of violence now seems particularly high there.
From PressTV (Iran)
Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence push could spark ethnic war: Turkey’s Erdogan
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), that the current push for the independence of the KRG could spark an “ethnic war” in northern Iraq.
“If Barzani and the Kurdish Regional Government do not go back on this mistake as soon as possible, they will go down in history with the shame of having dragged the region into an ethnic and sectarian war,” Erdogan said in a speech addressing academics at his palace in the capital Ankara on Tuesday.
The Turkish president’s comments came a day after the KRG held a provocative independence plebiscite in the Iraqi Kurdish region despite fierce opposition from Baghdad and neighboring countries Iran and Turkey. Ankara has already warned that disintegration of Iraq has the potential to turn into a major conflict.
The contentious non-binding vote, which was announced by the KRG earlier in the year, was also held in the region much to the consternation of the international community that warned it could most likely throw the already violence-weary Arab country into more trouble.
According to Iraqi Kurdish authorities, the turnout was 76 percent, with 3.3 million of the total 4.58 million registered voters having participated in the plebiscite. The results were expected to be announced within 24 hours following the referendum.
Elsewhere in his remarks, Erdogan described the Kurdish referendum as “treason to our country,” since it had come at a time of warm relations between Ankara and Erbil, the capital of the KRG. The Turkish president also strongly urged Barzani to “give up on an adventure, which can only have a dark end.”
“Until the very last moment, we weren’t expecting Barzani to make such a mistake as holding the referendum; apparently we were wrong. This referendum decision, which has been taken without any consultation, is treachery,” the Turkish president said.
On Monday, Erdogan said he would seal the Turkish border with the Iraqi Kurdish region over the controversial plebiscite, threatening the Kurdish leaders with blocking their key oil exports. He also did not rule out military intervention in the region to counter the creation of a Kurdish state on its southeastern border, hinting that the would-be state could become a safe haven for Kurdish militants, notably the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants, who fight against Ankara.
On Tuesday, Erdogan reiterated that Turkey, which fears the effects of the referendum on its large Kurdish population, would consider all options, including economic sanctions and military measures, regarding the KRG, warning the Iraqi Kurds that they would go hungry if Ankara decided to stop the flow of trucks and oil across its border with northern Iraq.
“All options are on the table right now and being discussed. You (the KRG) will be stuck from the moment we start implementing the sanctions,” said Erdogan in Ankara, warning, “It will be over when we close the oil taps, all (their) revenues will vanish and they will not be able to find food when our trucks stop going to northern Iraq.”
‘Israeli flag will not save you’
Elsewhere in his remarks, the Turkish president said only the Tel Aviv regime would recognize independence of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.
“Who will recognize your independence? Israel. The world is not about Israel. You should know that the waving of Israeli flags there will not save you” from regional isolation, Erdogan said, referring to some Israeli flags waved by a number of people in the streets of Erbil during the celebrations last night.
On Monday, the Iraqi Defense Ministry announced that the country’s army had begun large-scale military drills with the Turkish army along the common border. Earlier in the day, Iraqi legislators had called for the deployment of army troops to areas disputed with Kurds.
Iran, for its part, has announced that it is opposed to the “unilateral” scheme for the independence of the Iraqi Kurdistan, underlining the importance of maintaining the integrity and stability of Iraq and insisting that the Kurdistan region is part of the majority Arab country.
On Sunday, Iran also closed its airspace to all flights to and from the Kurdish region at the request of the Iraqi government.
Why does the outside world oppose the referendum?
Even the United States, which has historically done a great deal to boost the Iraqi Kurds, is dead set against the referendum. U.S. officials fear that a Kurdish independence push now will undermine the campaign against the Islamic State and harm the reelection campaign of Abadi, their favored candidate, in April. Now is not the time, they argue, to rock the boat.
Abadi has deemed the referendum “illegal,” while governments in Turkey and Iran also refuse to recognize the vote’s result. The Turkish government has worked closely with Barzani, but now warned of dire repercussions should the secession movement gain much more steam.
“After this, let’s see through which channels the northern Iraqi regional government will send its oil, or where it will sell it,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday, warning that Turkey could block the KRG’s oil exports. “We have the tap. The moment we close the tap, then it’s done.”
Turkey, of course, faces its own long-running Kurdish insurgency, which has flared once more in the wake of the Syrian civil war and the rise of a semiautonomous Syrian Kurdish enclave on its southern flank. Ankara, desperate to shove the genie of Kurdish nationalism back into its lamp, dreads the possibility of a functioning, independent Kurdish state breaking away from Iraq.
The Iraqi Kurds do have one conspicuous source of support — the Israelis have long seen the Kurds as useful allies on the Iranian border and have been vocal advocates for their independence in the buildup to the vote.
A yes vote may not prompt an immediate crisis. There’s a hope, suggests David Pollock of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, that the KRG’s neighbors may moderate their stances after the referendum. “Outsiders will have little choice but to deal with the aftermath in a pragmatic fashion,” Pollock wrote. “As one senior Kurdish official put it privately… this week, ‘We hope that wisdom will prevail.’ ”
If it doesn’t, though, and if no productive track of talks emerges between Baghdad and Irbil, then a fuse will have been lit and an already complex geopolitical conflagration will get all the more complicated, especially for the United States.
“Democratic Western states would hardly want to be seen as standing against the collective will of millions of people who had voted for separation from Iraq,” wrote Michael Stephens, research fellow for Middle East Studies at RUSI Qatar, a think tank. “But neither do they wish to be the main architects of a permanent rupture in a fragmented region.”
From SAFE – Sept. 20, 2017
High Energy Stakes For Kurdish Referendum
There’s no sign that the Kurds are backing down from voting for their independence. They plan to hold a referendum across Kurdish and disputed Iraqi territories on September 25. With just a few days to go, no one can stop them, and “alternatives” proposed by foreign powers haven’t gained any traction yet. Although the vote may be non-binding, meaning that a formal declaration of independence might be years off, foreign powers don’t seem to care.
Although the vote may be non-binding, meaning that a formal declaration of independence might be years off, foreign powers have opposed the referendum.
The U.S., UK and France all oppose the referendum or the ultimate goal of independence, with Washington using some of the strongest language. “Holding the referendum in disputed areas is particularly provocative and destabilizing,” the White House said in a September 15 statement.
Russia has welcomed the referendum with some caveats. In August, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the referendum as an “expression of the ambitions of the Kurdish people,” but he stopped short of endorsing independence outright. Instead, he called on the Kurds to carefully consider the full ramifications of secession. In a deal seen by some as a last-minute endorsement, Russian energy giant Rosneft announced a deal this week with the Kurds to invest in vital oil and gas export infrastructure. The deal could only advance with Moscow’s blessing since the Russian government owns a 50 percent stake in Rosneft.
Russia is an exception but, more importantly for the Kurds, their neighbors have all come out forcefully against this month’s vote. Leaders in Iraq, Turkey and Iran have all declared the referendum illegitimate and dangerous. For their part, Kurdish authorities insist that it’s constitutional under Iraqi law and 10 years overdue.
President of the Kurdistan Regional Government Massoud Barzani has been talking about independence for years. Most recently, in 2014, the Kurds were primed to pursue it—or at least they appeared to be. They had secured a comprehensive energy deal with Turkish authorities in late 2013 which scaled up independent oil exports by pipeline to Ceyhan. The same deal promised Turkish investments in the KRG and future gas exports to Turkey.
Yet, with the rise of ISIS in 2014 and the collapse of oil prices later that year, independence lost its appeal, at least for a time. Foreign powers convinced the Kurds to put off any referendum until after ISIS was dealt with. Three years later—in 2017—ISIS is on the run and the Kurds are exporting more oil than ever: Almost 600 thousand barrels of crude pass to and through Turkey every day, mostly by pipeline.
The Kurds are again pushing for independence. The question now is how others will push back.
Ahead of elections next year, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi faces increasing pressure to resist the drive toward independence. He can do this in a number of ways. Perhaps the easiest option is to chase Kurdish crude exports in foreign courts. His predecessor Nouri al-Maliki tried this with limited success, but Abadi’s case to halt Kurdish oil deliveries would be much stronger if the Kurds secede from Iraq, even more so if they continue to export oil from disputed territory. Up to now, foreign courts have largely deferred to Iraq’s Supreme Court because the export issue is a constitutional matter so long as the KRG is part of Iraq. European and American courts may be less deferential, however, if the dispute was between sovereign states, one of which may not be recognized by the U.S., European Union, the UN or Arab League.
If the KRG officially files for a divorce with Baghdad, then some military posturing would be unavoidable, which of course raises the possibility of escalation.
If the KRG officially files for a divorce with Baghdad, then some military posturing would be unavoidable, which of course raises the possibility of escalation. The risk of conflict would rise even more if the Kurds sought to make permanent their administration of oil-rich territory which they took over in 2014. The status of Kirkuk has been a singular focus of authorities in Iraq and Turkey.
Turkey is currently weighing its response to the September 25 referendum. It’s true Turkey served as the midwife of the KRG’s independent oil policy going back to 2013, but much has changed since then. Inside Turkey, relations between the government and the Kurds have collapsed; minority politicians are in jail and there’s no end in sight for the war against Kurdish militants. The Turks are allergic to Kurdish independence because similar movements might spring up inside Turkey or war-torn Syria.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan isn’t tipping his cards just yet, but he has the most leverage over the Kurds. This week he floated the idea of extraordinary sanctions against the KRG. This is no idle threat. Inside Turkey, KRG oil exports pass through the old Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which is controlled by state-owned operator Botas. Whenever the Turks see fit, they can shut the pipeline to Ceyhan without warning. This would have dire consequences for the landlocked KRG, which depends heavily on oil revenues.
A crippling pipeline closure is perhaps the most extreme option. Thus, it may be reserved for whenever the Kurds officially declare independence. But the increasingly harsh tone adopted by Turkish officials reflects genuine alarm and anger. “The referendum planned to be held by the KRG is a matter of national security for our country,” Turkish PM Binali Yildirim said this month. A week before the referendum, the Turks deployed dozens of tanks along the border as part of a “drill” not far from a key juncture where Kurdish oil crosses over into Turkish territory.
The Kurdish predicament is defined by energy and oil. These assets hold the promise of prosperity and independence—but they also serve as tripwires for conflict and sources of leverage for opponents.
Iran opposes the referendum, but unlike Turkey, it’s less worried about Kurdish unrest at home. Like Washington, which is another a close ally of the central government in Baghdad, Tehran insists on keeping Iraq intact. Iranian officials have threatened to close border crossings with the KRG if the Kurds seek independence. In the event of a showdown, Baghdad could call on Shia Arab militias with ties to Iran, some of which clashed with Kurdish security forces last year.
The Kurdish predicament is defined by energy and oil. These assets hold the promise of prosperity and independence—but they also serve as tripwires for conflict and sources of leverage for opponents.
