Mobility Services Enhanced by Automated Driving Could Result in Dramatically Fewer Vehicles on Roads by 2035, According to Navigant Research
Battery electric vehicles are expected to account for 8 to 17
percent of the global light duty vehicle population by 2035, report finds
A new report from Navigant
Research analyzes competing powertrain options for light duty
vehicles (LDVs), providing global forecasts for annual sales and vehicle
populations, driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices,
and autonomous mobility system penetrations.
The potential of automated driving technologies promises to disrupt the
global transportation system through improved efficiency in cost, time,
and space. This is likely to encourage greater adoption of LDV travel
via highly utilized vehicles, which are expected to become smaller and
increasingly energy efficient. Click
to tweet: According to a new report from @NavigantRSRCH,
mobility services enhanced by automated driving could result in
dramatically fewer vehicles on roads by 2035.
“By decreasing the costs and hassle of LDV travel through automation,
transportation is apt to become more dependent on it, but if vehicle
automation is not accompanied by electrification or alternative fuels,
its net impact will be to increase fossil fuel consumption,” says Scott
Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “In this
respect, city governments will wield significant power in determining
what technologies are adopted in automated mobility services, and those
determinations are likely to be to the advantage of vehicles with
zero-emissions capabilities.”
Alternative fuels do have the potential to serve as reliable
replacements to gasoline and diesel, according to the report. Battery
electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to account for 8 percent of the
global LDV population by 2035 but could reach as high as 17 percent with
high oil prices and aggressive declines in battery prices.
The report, Transportation
Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles, evaluates the economics and
capabilities of competing powertrain options that will feed the future
transportation system. The study provides market sizing for the overall
LDV market and light duty internal combustion engine, stop-start,
hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, fuel cell, natural gas, and
propane autogas vehicles (ICEVs, SSVs, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, FCVs, NGVs,
and PAGVs). Global forecasts for annual sales and vehicle populations
are driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and
autonomous mobility system penetrations within the LDV fleet. Forecasts
are provided by segment under conservative, base, and aggressive
scenarios. Core model scenario forecasts are also provided alongside
powertrain sensitivities to each scenario parameter. An Executive
Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant
Research website.
About Navigant Research
Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides
market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often
highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, Navigant Research
focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology
markets. The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry
analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep
examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the
Energy Technologies, Utility Transformations, Transportation
Efficiencies, and Buildings Innovations sectors. Additional information
about Navigant Research can be found at www.navigantresearch.com.
About Navigant
Navigant Consulting, Inc. is a specialized, global professional services
firm that helps clients take control of their future. Navigant’s
professionals apply deep industry knowledge, substantive technical
expertise, and an enterprising approach to help clients build, manage
and/or protect their business interests. With a focus on markets and
clients facing transformational change and significant regulatory or
legal pressures, the Firm primarily serves clients in the healthcare,
energy and financial services industries. Across a range of advisory,
consulting, outsourcing, and technology/analytics services, Navigant’s
practitioners bring sharp insight that pinpoints opportunities and
delivers powerful results. More information about Navigant can be found
at navigant.com.
* The information contained in this press release concerning the
report, Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles, is a
summary and reflects Navigant Research’s current expectations based on
market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are
inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those
contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full
report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the
report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report.
Neither Navigant Research nor Navigant undertakes any obligation to
update any of the information contained in this press release or the
report.
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