Slowing demand and increasing production puts North America on track for net liquids exports

North America expected to export liquids starting 2021

BP (ticker: BP) released its 2016 Energy Outlook – Focus on North America today. In the repost it forecasts that increasing oil and gas production, mixed with lower demand in North America, will lead to net exports by 2021.

Liquids consumption is expected to decline by 1 MMBOPD to 22.3 MMBOPD by 2035, BP said in its report, the lowest level since 1996.

Oil’s market share is expected to decline to 4% to 31% by 2035 as increased use of natural gas and renewables replaces crude oil and other liquids.

During that same period of time, liquids production is expected to increase by 8.6 MMBOPD to 29.5 MMBOPD, the highest ever level for North America. BP expects production growth will be driven by U.S. tight oil and NGLs, which will each increase by 4 MMBOPD, and Canadian oil sands, which the company expects to increase production by 2 MMBOPD. North America will supply roughly 26% of global liquids, compared to 22% today.

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