From the Financial Post

Suncor Energy Inc.’s $4.13 billion takeover of Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. looks far from certain, with the target’s share price trading at a record gap to the bid just a day before expiring.

Shares of Calgary-based Canadian Oil Sands closed Wednesday at $7.47 in Toronto, putting Suncor’s $8.52 per share offer at a record 14.1 percent premium since the deal was announced on Oct. 5., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Suncor, the country’s largest oil producer by market value, is offering 0.25 share for each of Canadian Oil Sands.

The market “seems to be pricing in a reasonably high probability it doesn’t happen,” said Randy Ollenberger, an analyst at Bank of Montreal’s BMO Capital Markets unit in Calgary. “It kind of reflects the fact that the market is concerned about the downside risk here if it doesn’t go ahead.”

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