(World Oil) – U.S. crude oil production is on track to reach a record average of 13.8 MMbpd in 2026, driven by continued Permian basin growth and rising output from new projects in the federal Gulf of America, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration‘s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
The forecast would surpass the previous annual record of 13.7 MMbpd set in 2025. U.S. production averaged 13.7 MMbpd during first-half 2026, up approximately 300,000 bpd, or 2%, from the same period last year.
Most of this year’s growth is concentrated in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico and the federal Gulf of America, EIA said.
Permian production. EIA forecasts Permian crude production will average 6.8 MMbpd in 2026, up 3% from 2025, supported by higher oil prices and continued oil-directed drilling.
WTI crude prices averaged $84/bbl through August, up from $65/bbl in 2025. Those prices remain above average breakeven levels reported by operators in the Dallas Fed’s March energy survey, which put breakevens at $69/bbl in the Midland basin and $63/bbl in the Delaware basin.
EIA expects the stronger price environment to support drilling activity and continued production gains across the Permian.
U.S. Gulf production. Federal offshore crude production increased by approximately 200,000 bpd, or 10%, during first-half 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. EIA forecasts Gulf production will increase 3%, or approximately 100,000 bpd, for full-year 2026.
Four major offshore projects that entered production over the past year accounted for much of the first-half increase. The Shenandoah FPU has averaged approximately 70,000 bpd since coming online in July 2025, while the Ballymore subsea tieback has averaged 58,000 bpd since April 2025. The Whale FPU has produced an average 38,000 bpd since January 2025, and the Salamanca FPU, supplied by the Leon and Castile fields, has averaged 25,000 bpd since starting production in late 2025.
EIA expects four additional, smaller Gulf projects to begin production by year-end, providing further support to the 2026 production forecast.
Hurricanes remain a potential risk to offshore production and project schedules. However, Colorado State University’s latest outlook calls for below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026 due to El Niño conditions.
Pictured above: The Shenandoah FPU operating in the U.S. Gulf. Image courtesy of Beacon Offshore Energy.
