Arch MI Releases Fall 2015 Edition of Its Housing and Mortgage Market Review and the Latest Arch MI Risk IndexSM
Arch MI Risk IndexSM Continues to Forecast Low Risk
of Home Price Declines Nationally but Highest Risk Remains in
Areas Most Dependent on Oil
Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (“Arch MI”), a leading provider of
private mortgage insurance and a wholly owned subsidiary of Arch Capital
Group Ltd., today released the Fall 2015 edition of its Housing and
Mortgage Market Review, which contains the latest Arch MI Risk Index
model results. The state- and metro-level risk indices predict the
likelihood that home prices in a region will decrease over the next two
years, based on recent economic and housing market data.
“The Fall 2015 edition of Arch MI’s Housing and Mortgage Market
Review indicates that the national average risk of price declines
remains low at 6%, although North Dakota, Wyoming and Alaska’s risks
have all elevated due to the decline in energy prices,“ said Dr. Ralph
G. DeFranco, Senior Director of Risk Analytics and Pricing at Arch MI.
”Nationwide, home prices should continue to grow faster than inflation
in the medium term but states highly dependent on energy will likely
experience slowing home price growth, and in a few locations outright
home price declines.”
On a state level, North Dakota, Wyoming and Alaska have the highest
probabilities of experiencing home price declines in the next two years
of 43%, 36% and 35%, respectively, due to the pullback in energy-related
income and employment.
-
North Dakota tops the list due to a 0.6% decline in total employment
over the past three months and the large increase in home prices in
recent years that resulted in home prices being overvalued by an
estimated 16% relative to incomes.
-
Wyoming has the second highest risk score, driven by the state’s
dependence on coal mining (coal prices are down about a third in the
past year), and a significant decline in oil and gas rigs.
-
Alaska has the third highest risk score due to significant portion of
state revenue derived from oil and gas production, a large state
budget deficit and stalling employment growth (total employment fell
1.8% in the past three months).
Within the Arch MI Risk Index for the 50 most populous Metropolitan
Statistical Areas (“MSAs”), Texas has two MSAs in the moderate-risk
category: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland (40%) and Dallas-Plano-Irving
(32%). Three additional Texas MSAs are within the next highest risk
category (low risk): Austin-Round Rock (29%), Fort Worth-Arlington (29%)
and San Antonio-New Braunfels (29%). Home prices in all of these Texas
MSAs are well above their historic long-term trends – approximately 16
percent higher given their historical relationship to incomes, thus
affordability remains a primary concern.
Fall 2015 Arch MI Risk Index
|
|
10 Riskiest States and 10 Riskiest Large MSAs
|
|
Highest Risk States
|
|
|
|
|
Highest Risk in the 50 Largest MSAs
|
Risk Rank
|
|
State
|
|
Risk Index
|
|
Change from Prior Year
|
|
|
|
|
Risk Rank
|
|
MSA
|
|
Risk Index
|
|
Change from Prior Year
|
Moderate
|
|
North Dakota
|
|
43
|
|
+5
|
|
|
|
|
Moderate
|
|
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
|
|
40
|
|
+4
|
Moderate
|
|
Wyoming
|
|
36
|
|
+13
|
|
|
|
|
Moderate
|
|
Dallas-Plano-Irving TX
|
|
32
|
|
0
|
Moderate
|
|
Alaska
|
|
35
|
|
+8
|
|
|
|
|
Low
|
|
Austin-Round Rock, TX
|
|
29
|
|
-5
|
Low
|
|
Texas
|
|
29
|
|
-3
|
|
|
|
|
Low
|
|
Fort Worth- Arlington, TX
|
|
29
|
|
+2
|
Low
|
|
Louisiana
|
|
27
|
|
-3
|
|
|
|
|
Low
|
|
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
|
|
29
|
|
-10
|
Low
|
|
Oklahoma
|
|
26
|
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
Minimal
|
|
Anaheim-Santa Ana- Irvine, CA
|
|
7
|
|
-1
|
Low
|
|
New Mexico
|
|
25
|
|
+3
|
|
|
|
|
Minimal
|
|
Denver-Aurora- Lakewood, CO
|
|
5
|
|
-3
|
Minimal
|
|
Colorado
|
|
5
|
|
-3
|
|
|
|
|
Minimal
|
|
West Palm Beach- Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL
|
|
4
|
|
-26
|
Minimal
|
|
West Virginia
|
|
5
|
|
-7
|
|
|
|
|
Minimal
|
|
New York-Jersey City-White Plains- NY-NJ
|
|
3
|
|
-3
|
Minimal
|
|
Hawaii
|
|
4
|
|
-1
|
|
|
|
|
Minimal
|
|
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
|
|
3
|
|
-3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dr. DeFranco will be hosting two webinars to discuss the implications of
the latest data during the week of October 12, 2015. Registration is
available at archmi.com, under the Resources tab.
More details are available in the Housing & Mortgage Market Review
– Fall 2015 edition, available at archmi.com under the News & Resources
tab.
https://mi.archcapgroup.com/Portals/1/Documents/hammr/RiskIndex_All_MSA_Fall2015.xlsx
https://mi.archcapgroup.com/Portals/1/Documents/hammr/Actual
HPI Relative to Fundamental HPI Fall2015.pdf
About Arch MI’s Housing & Mortgage Market
Review and Risk Index
The Housing & Mortgage Market Review, which presents Arch MI
Risk Index(SM) results, is published quarterly by Arch
Mortgage Insurance Company. The Risk Index is a proprietary statistical
model that measures home price risk by estimating the probability that
home prices in a state or one of the nation’s 401 largest metropolitan
statistical areas (MSAs) will be lower in two years. For example, a
score of 25 indicates a 25 percent chance the FHFA All-Transactions
Regional Housing Price Index (HPI) will be lower two years from the date
of the input data release. The Arch MI Risk Index weights various local
economic and housing market factors, such as affordability, unemployment
rates, economic growth rates, net migration, housing starts, etc. based
on a statistical model built on data going back to the early 1980s. It
estimates the likelihood of seeing negative home prices, and does not
indicate the size of any declines. The Arch MI Risk Index is updated
after each quarterly release of the FHFA All-Transactions Regional HPI.
ABOUT ARCH MORTGAGE INSURANCE COMPANY
Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s U.S. mortgage insurance operation, Arch MI, is
a leading provider of private insurance covering mortgage credit risk.
Headquartered in Walnut Creek, CA, Arch MI's mission is to protect
lenders against credit risk, while extending the possibility of
responsible homeownership to qualified borrowers. Arch MI’s flagship
mortgage insurer, Arch Mortgage Insurance Company, is licensed to write
mortgage insurance in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and
Puerto Rico. For more information, please visit archmi.com.
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe
harbor" for forward−looking statements. This release or any other
written or oral statements made by or on behalf of Arch Capital Group
Ltd. and its subsidiaries may include forward−looking statements, which
reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial
performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact
included in or incorporated by reference in this release are
forward−looking statements.
Forward−looking statements can generally be identified by the use of
forward−looking terminology such as "may," "will," "expect," "intend,"
"estimate," "anticipate," "believe" or "continue" or their negative or
variations or similar terminology. Forward−looking statements involve
our current assessment of risks and uncertainties. Actual events and
results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these
statements. A non-exclusive list of the important factors that could
cause actual results to differ materially from those in such
forward-looking statements includes the following: adverse general
economic and market conditions; increased competition; pricing and
policy term trends; fluctuations in the actions of rating agencies and
our ability to maintain and improve our ratings; investment performance;
the loss of key personnel; the adequacy of our loss reserves, severity
and/or frequency of losses, greater than expected loss ratios and
adverse development on claim and/or claim expense liabilities; greater
frequency or severity of unpredictable natural and man-made catastrophic
events; the impact of acts of terrorism and acts of war; changes in
regulations and/or tax laws in the United States or elsewhere; our
ability to successfully integrate, establish and maintain operating
procedures as well as integrate the businesses we have acquired or may
acquire into the existing operations; changes in accounting principles
or policies; material differences between actual and expected
assessments for guaranty funds and mandatory pooling arrangements;
availability and cost to us of reinsurance to manage our gross and net
exposures; the failure of others to meet their obligations to us; and
other factors identified in our filings with the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission.
The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as
exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with other cautionary
statements that are included herein or elsewhere. All subsequent written
and oral forward−looking statements attributable to us or persons acting
on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these
cautionary statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or
revise any forward−looking statement, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise.
View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151006006094/en/
Copyright Business Wire 2015