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Decreasing demand for coal in electricity generation pushes production down to levels not seen since the early 1980s

Coal production in the first three months of 2016 was 173 million short tons, the lowest quarterly level in the United States since a major coal strike in the second quarter of 1981. Among the regions tracked by the EIA, the Powder River Basin (PBR) in Montana and Wyoming saw the largest decline both in terms of absolute tonnage and as a percentage of the previous quarter.

EIA Quartly Coal Production

Demand for coal has dropped off steeply as natural gas becomes the primary fuel source for electrical generation. Electricity generation accounts for more than 90% of domestic coal use, but environmental regulations have caused the fuel source to fall out of favor. Compounding the problem for coal producers, electricity demand is growing more slowly, while historically-low natural gas prices are making it easier for electricity generators to switch to the cleaner burning fuel, reports the EIA.

A 17% decrease in coal production from the previous quarter marked the largest quarter-over-quarter decline since the fourth quarter of 1984. Mild winters both this year and last were likely responsible for the steep decline in production in the beginning of this year. Electric power plants purchased more coal than they needed throughout the fourth quarter of 2015, resulting a 34 MMst build in coal stockpiles, the highest Q4 net increase on record.

Electric power generators were encouraged to burn coal from their stockpiles rather than purchase more from coal producers in the first quarter of the year. Data from the American Association of Railroads showed coal carloads were down 20% quarter-over-quarter as power generators ordered less coal.

The drop in demand for coal was not concentrated in any particular region, either, the EIA reports. Texas, Michigan, Illinois and Oklahoma accounted for an average quarterly demand of 37 MMst of Powder River Basin coal in 2015, or about 40% of total PBR production. Demand for PBR coal from those four states fell 49% to 19 MMst in the first quarter of the year. First-quarter PBR coal production of 69 MMst was the lowest since 1995.

EIA US Coal Production Q1 16


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