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Increased natural gas production is projected to satisfy 60% to 80% of a potential increase in demand for added liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Lower 48 states, according to recently released EIA report.

The report, Effect of Increased Levels of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports on U.S. Energy Market, considered the long-term effects of several LNG export scenarios specified by the Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy.

Added LNG Export ScenariosIn the export scenarios that EIA was asked to analyze, LNG exports from the Lower 48 states start in 2015 and increase at a rate of 2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day per year, ultimately reaching 12, 16 or 20 Bcf/d. EIA also included a 20-Bcf/d export scenario (Alt 20-Bcf/d) with a delayed ramp-up to identify the effect of higher LNG exports implemented at a more credible pace.

LNG exports from the Lower 48 states in the baselines have projected 2040 levels ranging from 3.3 Bcf/d (LOGR case) to 14.0 Bcf/d (HOGR case). Estimated price and market responses to each pairing of a specified export scenario and a baseline will reflect the additional amount of LNG exports needed to reach the targeted export level starting from that baseline.

With the exception of one baseline/scenario pairing, higher natural gas production satisfies 60% to 80% of the increase in natural gas demand from LNG exports during 2015-40. With the exception of the HOGR case, more than 70% of the increased production comes from shale resources.

change in nat gas supply - lngThe EIA Projected average natural gas prices at the producer level are 4% to 11% above the Reference case across export scenarios during 2015-40. “Generally, natural gas prices increase relative to their respective base cases, with the greatest impact during the 2015-25 timeframe when LNG exports are ramping up,” the EIA said.

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