Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras informs that its Board of Directors has approved, on June 26th, 2015, the 2015–2019 Business and Management Plan. The Plan has as its fundamental objectives to delever the Company and to generate value for its shareholders.
The Plan projects the return of leverage to the following targets: net leverage below 40% by 2018 and 35% by 2020, and net debt/EBITDA below 3.0x by 2018 and 2.5% by 2020.
Among the assumptions considered in the financial planning of the 2015-2019 Business and Management Plan, we highlight:
• Import parity for oil product pricing in Brazil;
• Brent price (average): US$ 60/bbl in 2015 and US$ 70/bbl in the period 2016-2019;
• Exchange Rate (average): as per the following table:
The amount of divestments in 2015/2016 was revised to US$ 15.1 billion (of which 30% from Exploration & Production, 30% from Downstream and 40% from Gas & Power). The Plan also anticipates additional efforts in the restructuring of businesses, demobilizing of assets and additional divestments, totaling US$ 42.6 billion during 2017/2018.
The investment portfolio of the Plan prioritizes oil exploration and production (E&P) projects in Brazil, focusing on the pre-salt. For other business areas, investment will be largely limited to maintaining operations, and for projects related to offloading oil and natural gas. Total investments have been reduced 37% in relation to the previous Plan and are allocated among the business segments as follows:
Net Debt / (Net Debt + Net Capitalization)
Of total E&P investments, 86% will be allocated to production development, 11% to exploration, and 3% for operational support. New production systems in Brazil will total US$ 64.4 billion, of which 91% will be for the pre-salt. Exploration activities within Brazil will be concentrated in meeting the Minimum Exploratory Program for each block.
The Downstream segment will receive US$12.8 billion of investments, of which 69% will be for maintenance and infrastructure, 11% for the conclusion of the Abreu and Lima refinery, and 10% for Distribution. The remaining 10% include investments in Comperj for receiving and treating natural gas, maintenance of equipment, among others.
The Gas & Power area has US$ 6.3 billion allocated, primarily for the construction of pipelines and processing units to treat gas from the pre-salt
Oil, NGL and Natural Gas Production Curve
The production targets for oil, NGL (natural gas liquids) and natural gas in Brazil were updated to reflect the postponements of projects with lesser maturity and delays in the delivery of production units, largely due to limitations of Brazilian suppliers.
The Company expects to reach total production of oil and gas (Brazil and international) of 3.7 million boed in 2020. We estimate that, by then, the pre-salt will represent more than 50% of total oil production.
The Plan projects the adoption of measures for optimization and productivity gains to reduce Manageable Operating Costs (total costs and expenses, excluding costs related to basic materials). Identified actions indicate that this could be met by greater efficiency in the management of contracted services, rationalizing structures and reorganizing the company´s businesses, optimizing personnel costs and reducing the costs of inputs acquisition.
We highlight that the Company is subject to several risk factors that could adversely impact its cash flows projections, such as:
• Changes in market variables, such as the price of oil and the foreign exchange rate;
• Divestments and other restructuring of our businesses, subject to prevailing market conditions when such transactions occur;
• Achieving production targets for oil and natural gas, in a scenario of difficulties for suppliers in Brazil.