From Stratfor
Click to See Demand and Usage Chart
That Saudi Arabia is a water-scarce nation should surprise no one. The largest country on the Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia is mostly barren desert, save some slightly wetter parts in the east. It is a fact that the kingdom has coped with since its inception after World War I and something the tribes of the Arabian Peninsula had lived with for centuries. However, continued overuse during the second half of last century and the mounting demographic and economic pressures of the coming decades have pushed Saudi water supplies to their breaking point. By some estimates, natural water resources in parts of the country are in danger of disappearing within the next 20 years.
The problem is largely due to the Saudi agricultural policies of the last 50 years, which stressed the country’s minimal resources. Statistics clearly show just how much agriculture has dominated overall Saudi water usage. In the 1970s and 1980s, Saudi Arabia, despite often conjuring images of endless sand and infertile fields, became the globe’s sixth-largest wheat exporter. Government incentives were responsible for this surge in production, which exceeded both self-sufficiency goals and the country’s storage capacity. During the agricultural expansion, irrigated acreage expanded by more than 400 percent in fewer than 20 years.
Agriculture remains the largest consumer of water resources in the country, yet consumption in the domestic and industrial sectors is also growing. Industrial water demand has increased at a rate of 7.5 percent per year over the past several years and is projected to continue that rapid growth, increasing by 50 percent in the next 15 years. As Riyadh seeks to diversify from its dependence on oil and natural gas production (a sector that is projected to demand more water as well), those numbers will only grow.
To protect its dwindling water supply, the kingdom must invest in the water sector, reduce system loss, decrease agricultural and industrial consumption rates, and end unsustainable water rate subsidies. Subsidized water rates encourage excess consumption: Saudi Arabia has one of the highest per capita water consumption rates in the world. While the government recognizes this fact, the public has been less than accepting of any changes to pricing schemes. Subsidy cuts in the water sector as part of austerity measures led to public outcry. Any further adjustments will be equally difficult. Even Saudi efforts to taper personal water consumption through public relations campaigns, which have been somewhat successful in other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, will likely not have much of an effect. So Saudi Arabia’s minimal water resources will continue to be stretched thin.
