(Investing) – Oil prices ticked higher on Monday, bolstered by OPEC+’s reaffirmation that it will hold output steady during the first quarter, as well as renewed supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions.
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As of 08:20 ET (13:20 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in March rose 1.0% to $62.58 per barrel, while the contract expiring in February added 1.0% to $63.01 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also jumped 1.0% to $59.11 per barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday reiterated its plan to pause production increases through the first quarter of next year, maintaining voluntary cuts of roughly 3.24 million barrels per day.
The group signaled a cautious approach as it confronts uneven demand trends and what it sees as a potentially oversupplied crude market in 2026. It also agreed on a mechanism to evaluate members’ maximum production capacities between January and September of next year, laying the groundwork for setting baseline quotas for 2027.
“This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines,” ING analysts said in a note.
Meanwhile, traders were weighing fresh supply risks tied to political rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Venezuela. Trump said he is considering closing airspace over the nation.
“This escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela has the U.S. carrying out strikes on boats it claims are carrying drugs, while also building its military presence nearby,” ING analysts said. “Venezuela exports around 800,000 barrels per day, of which most of the crude oil will head to China. Clearly, any further escalation puts this supply at risk.”
Additional support for crude came from a series of attacks over the weekend on Russian energy infrastructure, which disrupted export operations.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a major conduit for Kazakh and Russian crude shipments through the Black Sea, said it had suspended loadings after a naval drone strike caused significant damage to a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.
“Shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged around 1.48m b/d so far this year, up roughly 200k b/d from last year, as the expansion of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan supported exports,” ING analysts added.
(Scott Kanowsky contributed reporting.)
