U.S. power consumption will drop 3.9% this year as coronavirus lockdowns cause offices to close and factories to run at reduced capacity, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Source: Reuters
The EIA projected power demand will drop to 3,801 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2020 from 3,957 billion kWh in 2019 before rising to 3,849 billion kWh in 2021.
Those declines follow a 1.2% drop in usage in 2019 due to mild weather from 2018’s record 4,003 billion kWh, according to data going back to 1949.
If power consumption falls as expected, 2020 would be the first time demand declined for two consecutive years since 2012.
The EIA said natural gas’s share of generation will rise from 37% in 2019 to 39% in 2020 before dropping to 34% in 2021 as gas prices increase, while coal’s share will slide from 24% in 2019 to 20% in 2020 before rising back to 24% in 2021.
Nuclear’s share of generation will rise from 20% in 2019 to 21% in 2020 before sliding back to 20% in 2021, while renewables will rise from 18% in 2019 to 20% in 2020 and 21% in 2021.
The EIA projected power sales to commercial and industrial consumers will drop by 6.0% and 8.8%, respectively, in 2020 from 2019 as offices close and factories run at reduced capacity due to coronavirus.
Electricity sales to residential homes, meanwhile, will rise 1.5% to 1,462 billion kWh in 2020 as lockdowns cause more people to stay home.
While both the residential and commercial sectors consumed record amounts of electricity in 2018 at 1,469 billion kWh and 1,382 billion kWh, respectively, the industrial sector set its all-time high of 1,064 billion kWh in 2000.
