(Oil Price) – Just over a month since President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran, taken in the shadow of his military intervention in Venezuela, the contrast between the two is hard to ignore. One intervention is drifting into uncertainty, while the other is settling into something easily described as a success.
As the world’s attention remains fixed on the volleys of missiles crossing the Middle East, the idea that Iran might follow Venezuela’s path now feels slightly absurd.
For a moment, it was a compelling story of a quick intervention and a brittle regime collapsing under pressure. But more than a month in, this narrative has stalled. The popular uprising against Iran’s Islamic Republic, which President Trump appeared to anticipate, has not materialized.
Meanwhile, in Caracas, the outcome is very different and looks remarkably durable. Polling carried out by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg shows that nearly 80% of Venezuelans think their country is the same or better off now than under Maduro.
More than half view increased American influence as a positive force, which is a striking reversal in a region where such sentiment is rarely offered lightly.
That relative stability has not happened by accident. The U.S. administration’s three-stage plan of stabilization, recovery, and transition has, in its early phases at least, held together.
Crucially, the consolidation of power under acting president Delcy Rodríguez has avoided the kind of fragmentation and infighting that so often follows regime change. Washington, for its part, has moved to reinforce that stability, including lifting sanctions on Rodríguez herself, which has been seen as an unmistakable signal that the U.S. is prepared to back the new order, not just install it.
Along with Rodríguez’s recognition by the U.S. government in a formal federal court filing last month, which acknowledged her administration as Venezuela’s legitimate authority, this has given her position both political and legal weight.
The U.S. promised Venezuelans economic prosperity after removing Nicolás Maduro from power, and there are signs that the country is heading in the right direction.
The Central Bank, silent for years, has resumed publishing inflation data and, perhaps most tellingly, the government has begun to rework the legal and commercial framework underpinning the oil sector.
What is emerging is a more deliberate attempt to rebuild the machinery that makes investment possible. The Rodríguez administration has moved to overhaul the legal framework governing oil and gas, rolling back the most restrictive elements of the Chávez era and allowing foreign firms greater operational control and more viable tax terms.
Deals that once seemed politically impossible are now being openly discussed, including arrangements that would allow Venezuelan crude to flow back into U.S. markets at scale.
Venezuela’s monthly oil exports surpassed 1 million barrels per day in March for the first time since September, thanks to increased trading from companies like Vitol and Trafigura. The trading firms’ sales rose to some 635,000 bpd, while Chevron’s exports of Venezuelan crude also increased to 267,000 bpd in March from 209,000 bpd the previous month.
Rodríguez’s government has also taken steps in the direction of a negotiated political opening. These include the presidential Commission for Democratic Coexistence and Peace, a body which includes a group of opposition members, as well as a political reform commission under Assembly chair Jorge Rodríguez. Additionally, a cross-party parliamentary commission is overseeing the amnesty law.
Among all these developments, much of the operational work has been concentrated within a tight-knit group of advisers and civil servants, many of whom have worked with Delcy Rodríguez for years and are now coordinating the process with a degree of consistency that had long been absent.
This group has effectively become the linchpin of oil sector talks, drawing on experience in structuring deals to facilitate Venezuelan crude exports and navigating what remains a complex and often unforgiving international legal environment.
Those involved in Venezuela’s oil sector understand the importance of this continuity. Investors are not just looking for opportunity; they are looking for assurance that agreements reached today will still hold tomorrow.
Yes, none of this guarantees a lasting outcome given the country’s infrastructure remains degraded, the sanctions policy is still contingent on politics, and the broader question of democratic legitimacy is far from resolved.
However, there’s no doubt that the framework is shifting to something closer to a functioning system. From one defined by contested authority, legal ambiguity and political risk to one where decisions are made by a recognised government, contracts are structured through established legal channels, and oil exports can once again move through predictable commercial arrangements.
Venezuela, for all its complications, is looking like a successful case of intervention, yet Iran remains a problem that is still unfolding.
By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com
