Opinions vary widely on how much Iranian crude will hit the market and when we can expect to see it
The much anticipated deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), was finalized today, fleshing out the details of the preliminary agreement reached on April 2, 2015.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iran will reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98% and export all waste for 15 years, reduce the number of centrifuges used to enrich uranium by two thirds, allow inspector access at nu...

Analyst Commentary

Roger Read, Wells Fargo 07.14.2015
Iran and the Power 5 plus 1 countries have reached agreement on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Following the tie off of some end of deal items, Iran should be free to fully reenter the global crude oil market. Prior to sanctions and the 2008 global financial crisis Iran annually produced 3.7-3.9 mmbopd. Under the full weight of sanctions, Iran has only produced 2.7-2.8 mmbopd. Our forecast presumed an agreement would be reached and that Iran would benefit from leakage ahead of a full lifting of sanctions. Thus we expect Iran to exit 2015 producing approximately 3.3 mmbopd, 0.5 mmbopd above sanctions limited production. We expect that level of production to persist throughout 2016 before moving 0.2-0.3 mmbopd higher in 2017.

John Freeman, Raymond James 07.14.2015
As far as lifting of the oil-related sanctions – which is what the oil market cares about – today’s text simply confirms what we’ve known since April 2. That is to say: there will be no immediate increase in Iranian oil exports. The European Union’s sanctions against “import and transport of Iranian oil, petroleum products, gas and petrochemical products” will be lifted “simultaneously with the IAEA-verified implementation of agreed nuclear-related measures by Iran.” Until Iranian compliance is certified, the sanctions will remain in place. Because there is no fixed timetable for this certification, there is no set date for when Iran will be able to ramp up oil exports. Thus, vis-à-vis the oil market there is fundamentally nothing new.

William Featherston, UBS 07.14.2015
We assume last week's sharp selloff in crude was driven by a combination of Greek uncertainty, concerns the Chinese equity market decrease would have on demand, and the growing likelihood of an Iranian accord. Nonetheless, with the IEA and OPEC estimating a 2016E 'call on OPEC' of 30.3 mb/d and 30.1 mb/d, the market is already oversupplied by over 1 mb/d with June OPEC production of 31.4 mb/d likely to increase assuming Iranian sanctions are lifted next year. We do not forecast a return to "midcycle prices" for $90/$85 Brent/WTI until 2018.  

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